"Extrapolations are useful, particularly in the form of soothsaying called forecasting trends. But in looking at the figures or the charts made from them, it is necessary to remember one thing constantly: The trend to now may be a fact, but the future trend represents no more than an educated guess. Implicit in it is 'everything else being equal' and 'present trends continuing'. And somehow everything else refuses to remain equal." (Darell Huff, "How to Lie with Statistics", 1954)
"Almost all efforts at data analysis seek, at some point, to generalize the results and extend the reach of the conclusions beyond a particular set of data. The inferential leap may be from past experiences to future ones, from a sample of a population to the whole population, or from a narrow range of a variable to a wider range. The real difficulty is in deciding when the extrapolation beyond the range of the variables is warranted and when it is merely naive. As usual, it is largely a matter of substantive judgment - or, as it is sometimes more delicately put, a matter of 'a priori nonstatistical considerations'." (Edward R Tufte, "Data Analysis for Politics and Policy", 1974)
"The types of graphics used in operating a business fall into three main categories: diagrams, maps, and charts. Diagrams, such as organization diagrams, flow diagrams, and networks, are usually intended to graphically portray how an activity should be, or is being, accomplished, and who is responsible for that accomplishment. Maps such as route maps, location maps, and density maps, illustrate where an activity is, or should be, taking place, and what exists there. [...] Charts such as line charts, column charts, and surface charts, are normally constructed to show the businessman how much and when. Charts have the ability to graphically display the past, present, and anticipated future of an activity. They can be plotted so as to indicate the current direction that is being followed in relationship to what should be followed. They can indicate problems and potential problems, hopefully in time for constructive corrective action to be taken." (Robert D Carlsen & Donald L Vest, "Encyclopedia of Business Charts", 1977)
"Time-series forecasting is essentially a form of extrapolation in that it involves fitting a model to a set of data and then using that model outside the range of data to which it has been fitted. Extrapolation is rightly regarded with disfavour in other statistical areas, such as regression analysis. However, when forecasting the future of a time series, extrapolation is unavoidable." (Chris Chatfield, "Time-Series Forecasting" 2nd Ed, 2000)
"Eliciting and mapping the participant's mental models, while necessary, is far from sufficient [...] the result of the elicitation and mapping process is never more than a set of causal attributions, initial hypotheses about the structure of a system, which must then be tested. Simulation is the only practical way to test these models. The complexity of the cognitive maps produced in an elicitation workshop vastly exceeds our capacity to understand their implications. Qualitative maps are simply too ambiguous and too difficult to simulate mentally to provide much useful information on the adequacy of the model structure or guidance about the future development of the system or the effects of policies." (John D Sterman, "Learning in and about complex systems", Systems Thinking Vol. 3 2003)
"[…] in software development, as in all things, plans get dodgier the farther into the future one looks. Any developer who has been around the block will admit that the cavalcade of methodologies over three decades of software history has left the field richer and given programmers useful new tools and ways of thinking about their work. But finding a developer or team that actually subscribes to a particular methodology isn’t easy." (Scott Rosenberg, "Dreaming in Code", 2007)
"Probabilities allow us to quantify future events and are an important aid to rational decision making. Without them, we can become seduced by anecdotes and stories." (Daniel J Levitin, "Weaponized Lies", 2017)
"The first myth is that prediction is always based on time-series extrapolation into the future (also known as forecasting). This is not the case: predictive analytics can be applied to generate any type of unknown data, including past and present. In addition, prediction can be applied to non-temporal" (time-based) use cases such as disease progression modeling, human relationship modeling, and sentiment analysis for medication adherence, etc. The second myth is that predictive analytics is a guarantor of what will happen in the future. This also is not the case: predictive analytics, due to the nature of the insights they create, are probabilistic and not deterministic. As a result, predictive analytics will not be able to ensure certainty of outcomes." (Prashant Natarajan et al, "Demystifying Big Data and Machine Learning for Healthcare", 2017)
"Estimates based on data are often uncertain. If the data were intended to tell us something about a wider population" (like a poll of voting intentions before an election), or about the future, then we need to acknowledge that uncertainty. This is a double challenge for data visualization: it has to be calculated in some meaningful way and then shown on top of the data or statistics without making it all too cluttered." (Robert Grant, "Data Visualization: Charts, Maps and Interactive Graphics", 2019)
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