🤖〽️Prompt Engineering: Copilot Unabridged (Part 42: How AI Can Help in Understanding Complex Systems)

Prompt Engineering Series

Prompt: "write a blogpost of 600 words on how AI can help in understanding complex systems"

Introduction

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing the way we analyze and interpret complex systems - from financial markets to biological ecosystems. These systems consist of interconnected components that interact in unpredictable ways, making them difficult to understand using traditional methods. AI’s ability to process vast amounts of data, recognize patterns, and simulate scenarios makes it an invaluable tool for deciphering complexity.

1. AI’s Role in Analyzing Complex Systems

Complex systems exist in various domains, including finance, healthcare, transportation, and environmental science. AI enhances our understanding by:

• Identifying hidden patterns in large datasets.
• Predicting system behavior based on historical trends.
• Simulating different scenarios to assess potential outcomes.

For example, AI can analyze financial markets to predict economic trends or optimize traffic systems to reduce congestion.

2. AI in Explainable Models for Complex Systems

One challenge in understanding complex systems is the black-box nature of AI models. Explainable AI (XAI) helps by:

• Clarifying AI decision-making processes, making them more transparent.
• Providing interpretable insights, ensuring users understand AI-generated conclusions.
• Enhancing trust in AI-driven predictions, especially in critical sectors like healthcare and finance.

By making AI more explainable, researchers and policymakers can verify and refine AI-driven insights.

3. AI in Scientific Research and Discovery

AI accelerates scientific discovery by analyzing complex biological, chemical, and physical systems. Some applications include:

• AI-driven drug discovery, identifying potential treatments faster.
• Climate modeling, predicting environmental changes with greater accuracy.
• Genomic analysis, uncovering genetic patterns linked to diseases.

AI’s ability to process massive datasets enables breakthroughs in fields that rely on complex system analysis.

4. AI in Decision-Making and Policy Development

Governments and organizations use AI to navigate complex policy decisions by:

• Assessing economic impacts of policy changes.
• Optimizing resource allocation in healthcare and infrastructure.
• Enhancing cybersecurity, detecting threats in interconnected digital systems.

AI-driven insights help policymakers make informed decisions in dynamic environments.

Conclusion: AI as a Key to Understanding Complexity

AI’s ability to analyze, explain, and predict complex systems makes it an essential tool for scientific research, policy development, and industry innovation. By leveraging AI, humanity can better understand and manage intricate systems, leading to smarter decisions and groundbreaking discoveries.

Disclaimer: The whole text was generated by Copilot at the first attempt. This is just an experiment to evaluate feature's ability to answer standard general questions, independently on whether they are correctly or incorrectly posed. Moreover, the answers may reflect hallucinations and other types of inconsistent or incorrect reasoning.

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🧭Business Intelligence: Mea Culpa (Part III: Problem Solving)

Business Intelligence Series

I've been working for more than 20 years in BI and Data Analytics area, in combination with Software Engineering, ERP implementations, Project Management, IT services and several other areas, which allowed me to look at many recurring problems from different perspectives. One of the things I learnt is that problems are more complex and more dynamic than they seem, respectively that they may require tailored dynamic solutions. Unfortunately, people usually focus on one or two immediate perspectives, ignoring the dynamics and the multilayered character of the problems!

Sometimes, a quick fix and limited perspective is what we need to get started and fix the symptoms, and problem-solvers usually stop there. When left unsupervised, the problems tend to kick back, build up momentum and appear under more complex forms in various places. Moreover, the symptoms can remain hidden until is too late. To this also adds the political agendas and the further limitations existing in organizations (people, money, know-how, etc.).

It seems much easier to involve external people (individual experts, consultancy companies) to solve the problem(s), though unless they get a deep understanding of the business and the issues existing in it, the chances are high that they solve the wrong problems and/or implement the wrong solutions. Therefore, it's more advisable to have internal experts, when feasible, and that's the point where business people with technical expertise and/or IT people with business expertise can help. Ideally, one should have a good mix and the so called competency centers can do a great job in handling the challenges of organizations. 

Between business and IT people there's a gap that can be higher or lower depending on resources know-how or the effort made by organizations to reduce it. To this adds the nature of the issues existing in organizations, which can vary considerable across departments, organizations or any other form of establishment. Conversely, the specific skillset can be transmuted where needed, which might happen naturally, though upon case also considerable effort needs to be involved in the process.

Being involved in similar tasks, one may get the impression that one can do whatever the others can do. This can happen in IT as well on the business side. There can be activities that can be done by parties from the other group, though there are also many exceptions in both directions, especially when one considers that one can’t generalize the applicability and/or transmutation of skillset. 

A more concrete example is the know-how needed by a businessperson to use the BI infrastructure for answering business questions, and ideally for doing all or at least most of the activities a BI professional can do. Ideally, as part of the learning path, it would be helpful to have a pursuable path in between the two points. The mastery of tools helps in the process though there are different mindsets involved.

Unfortunately, the data-related fields are full of overconfident people who get the problem-solving process wrong. Data-based problem-solving resumes in gathering the right facts and data, building the right conceptual model, identifying the right questions to ask, collecting more data, refining methods and solutions, etc. There’s aways an easy wrong way to solve a problem!

The mastery of tools doesn’t imply the mastery of business domains! What people from the business side can bring is deeper insight in the business problems, though getting from there to implementing solutions can prove a long way, especially when problems require different approaches, different levels of approximations, etc. No tool alone can bridge such gaps yet! Frankly, this is the most difficult to learn and unfortunately many data professionals seem to get this wrong!

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🔖Book Review: Zhamak Dehghani's Data Mesh: Delivering Data-Driven Value at Scale (2021)

	Zhamak Dehghani's "Data Mesh: Delivering Data-Driven Value at Scale" (2021) is a must read book for the data professional. So, here I am, finally managing to read it and give it some thought, even if it will probably take more time and a few more reads for the ideas to grow. Working in the fields of Business Intelligence and Software Engineering for almost a quarter-century, I think I can understand the historical background and the direction of the ideas presented in the book. There are many good ideas but also formulations that make me circumspect about the applicability of some assumptions and requirements considered.  So, after data marts, warehouses, lakes and lakehouses, the data mesh paradigm seems to be the new shiny thing that will bring organizations beyond the inflection point with tipping potential from where organization's growth will have an exponential effect. At least this seems to be the first impression when reading the first chapters.
The book follows to some degree the advocative tone of promoting that "our shiny thing is much better than previous thing", or "how bad the previous architectures or paradigms were and how good the new ones are" (see [2]). Architectures and paradigms evolve with the available technologies and our perception of what is important for businesses. Old and new have their place in the order of things, and the old will continue to exist, at least until the new proves its feasibility.   The definition of the data mash as "a sociotechnical approach to share, access and manage analytical data in complex and large-scale environments - within or across organizations" [1] is too abstract even if it reflects at high level what the concept is about. Compared to other material I read on the topic, the book succeeds in explaining the related concepts as well the goals (called definitions) and benefits (called motivations) associated with the principles behind the data mesh, making the book approachable also by non-professionals.  Built around four principles "data as a product", "domain-oriented ownership", "self-serve data platform" and "federated governance", the data mesh is the paradigm on which data as products are developed; where the products are "the smallest unit of architecture that can be independently deployed and managed", providing by design the information necessary to be discovered, understood, debugged, and audited. It's possible to create Lego-like data products, data contracts and/or manifests that address product's usability characteristics, though unless the latter are generated automatically, put in the context of ERP and other complex systems, everything becomes quite an endeavor that requires time and adequate testing, increasing the overall timeframe until a data product becomes available.  The data mesh describes data products in terms of microservices that structure architectures in terms of a collection of services that are independently deployable and loosely coupled. Asking from data products to behave in this way is probably too hard a constraint, given the complexity and interdependency of the data models behind business processes and their needs. Does all the effort make sense? Is this the "agility" the data mesh solutions are looking for? Many pioneering organizations are still fighting with the concept of data mesh as it proves to be challenging to implement. At a high level everything makes sense, but the way data products are expected to function makes the concept challenging to implement to the full extent. Moreover, as occasionally implied, the data mesh is about scaling data analytics solutions with the size and complexity of organizations. The effort makes sense when the organizations have a certain size and the departments have a certain autonomy, therefore, it might not apply to small to medium businesses. Previous Post <<||>>  Next Post References: [1] Zhamak Dehghani (2021) "Data Mesh: Delivering Data-Driven Value at Scale" (link) [2] SQL-troubles (2024) Zhamak Dehghani's Data Mesh - Monolithic Warehouses and Lakes (link)

🧭Business Intelligence: Data Culture (Part II: Leadership, Necessary but not Sufficient)

Business Intelligence Series

Continuing the idea from the previous post on Brent Dykes’ article on data culture and Generative AI [1], it’s worth discussing about the relationship between data culture and leadership. Leadership belongs to a list of select words everybody knows about but fails to define them precisely, especially when many traits are associated with leadership, respectively when most of the issues existing in organizations ca be associated with it directly or indirectly.

Take for example McKinsey’s definition: "Leadership is a set of behaviors used to help people align their collective direction, to execute strategic plans, and to continually renew an organization." [2] It gives an idea of what leadership is about, though it lacks precision, which frankly is difficult to accomplish. Using modifiers like strong or weak with the word leadership doesn’t increase the precision of its usage. Several words stand out though: direction, strategy, behavior, alignment, renewal.

Leadership is about identifying and challenging the status quo, defining how the future will or could look like for the organization in terms of a vision, a mission and a destination, translating them into a set of goals and objectives. Then, it’s about defining a set of strategies, focusing on transformation and what it takes to execute it, adjusting the strategic bridge between goals and objectives, or, reading between the lines, identifying and doing the right things, being able to introduce a new order of things, reinventing the organization, adapting the organization to circumstances.

Aligning resumes in aligning the various strategies, aligning people with the vision and mission, while renewal is about changing course in response to new information or business context, identifying and transforming weaknesses into strengths, risks into opportunities, respectively opportunities into certitudes, seeing possibilities and multiplying them.

Leadership is also about working on the system, addressing the systemic failure, addressing structural and organizational issues, making sure that the preconditions and enablers for organizational change are in place, that no barriers exist or other factors impact negatively the change, that the positive aspects of complex systems like emergence or exponential growth do happen in time.

And leadership is about much more - interpersonal influence, inspiring people, Inspiring change, changing mindsets, assisting, motivating, mobilizing, connecting, knocking people out of their comfort zones, conviction, consistency, authority, competence, wisdom, etc. Leadership seems to be an idealistic concept where too many traits are considered, traits that ideally should apply to the average knowledge worker as well.

An organization’s culture is created, managed, nourished, and destroyed through leadership, and that’s a strong statement and constraint. By extension this statement applies to the data culture as well. It’s about leading by example and not by words or preaching, and many love to preach, even when no quire is around. It’s about demanding the same from the managers as managers demand from their subalterns, it’s about pushing the edges of culture. As Dykes mentions, it should be about participating in the data culture initiatives, making expectations explicit, and sharing mental models.

Leadership is a condition necessary but not sufficient for an organizations culture to mature. Financial and other type of resources are needed, though once a set of behaviors is seeded, they have the potential to grow and multiply when the proper conditions are met. Growth occurs also by being aware of what needs to be done and doing it day by day consciously, through self-mastery. Nowadays there are so many ways to learn and search for support, one just needs a bit of curiosity and drive to learn anything. Blaming in general the lack of leadership is just a way of passing the blame one level above on the command chain.

Resources:
[1] Forbes (2024) Why AI Isn’t Going To Solve All Your Data Culture Problems, by Brent Dykes (link)
[2] McKinsey (2022) What is leadership? (link)

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🧭Business Intelligence: A Software Engineer's Perspective (Part V: From Process Management to Mental Models in Knowledge Gaps)

Business Intelligence Series 

An organization's business processes are probably one of its most important assets because they reflect the business model, philosophy and culture, respectively link the material, financial, decisional, informational and communicational flows across the whole organization with implication in efficiency, productivity, consistency, quality, adaptability, agility, control or governance. A common practice in organizations is to document the business-critical processes and manage them accordingly over their lifetime, making sure that the employees understand and respect them, respectively improve them continuously. 

In what concerns the creation of data artifacts, data without the processual context are often meaningless, no matter how much a data professional knows about data structures/models. Processes allow to delimit the flow and boundaries of data, respectively delimit the essential from non-essential. Moreover, it's the knowledge of processes that allows to reengineer the logic behind systems especially when no proper documentation about the logic is available. 

Therefore, the existence of documented processes allows to bridge the knowledge gaps existing on the factual side, and occasionally also on the technical side. In theory, the processes should provide a complete overview of the procedures, rules, policies and responsibilities existing in the organization, respectively how the business operates. However, even if people tend to understand how the world works locally, when broken down into parts, their understanding is systemically flawed, missing the implications of causal relationships that span time with delays, feedback, variable confusion, chaotic behavior, and/or other characteristics borrowed from the vocabulary of complex systems.  

Jay W Forrester [3], Peter M Senge [1], John D Sterman [2] and several other systems-thinking theoreticians stressed the importance of mental models in making-sense about the world especially in setups that reflect the characteristics of complex systems. Mental models frame our experience about the world in congruent mental constructs that are further used to think, understand and navigate the world. They are however tacit, fuzzy, incomplete, imprecisely stated, inaccurate, evolving simplifications with dual character, enabling on one side, while impeding on the other side cognitive processes like sense-making, learning, thinking or decision-making, limiting the range of action to what is familiar and comfortable. 

On one side one of the primary goals of Data Analytics is to provide new insights, while on the other side the new insights fail to be recognized and put into practice because they conflict with existing mental models, limiting employees to familiar ways of thinking and acting. 

Externalizing and sharing mental models allow besides making assumptions explicit and creating a world view also to strategize, make tests and simulations, respectively make sure that the barriers and further constraints don't impact the decisional process. Sange goes further and advances that mental models, especially at management level, offer a competitive advantage, allowing to maintain coherence and direction, people becoming more perceptive and responsive about environmental or circumstance changes.

The whole process isn't about creating a unique congruent mental model, even if several mental models may converge toward one or more holistic models, but of providing different diverse perspectives and enabling people to make leaps in abstraction (by moving from direct observations to generalizations) while blending advocacy and inquiry to promote collaborative learning. Gradually, people and organizations should recognize a shift from mental models dominated by events to mental models that recognize longer-tern patterns of change and the underlying structures producing those patterns [1].

Probably, for many the concept of mental models seems to be still too abstract, respectively that the effort associated with it is unnecessary, or at least questionable on whether it can make a difference. Conversely, being aware of the positive and negative implications the mental models hold, can makes us explore, even if ad-hoc, the roads they open.

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Resources:
[1] Peter M Senge (1990) The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning Organization
[2] John D Sterman (2000) "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world"
[3] Jay W Forrester (1971) "Counterintuitive Behaviour of Social Systems", Technology Review

🧭Business Intelligence: Perspectives (Part 8: Insights - The Complexity Perspective)

Business Intelligence Series

Scientists attempt to discover laws and principles, and for this they conduct experiments, build theories and models rooted in the data they collect. In the business setup, data professionals analyze the data for identifying patterns, trends, outliers or anything else that can lead to new information or knowledge. On one side scientists choose the boundaries of the systems they study, while for data professionals even if the systems are usually given, they can make similar choices. 

In theory, scientists are more flexible in what data they collect, though they might have constraints imposed by the boundaries of their experiments and the tools they use. For data professionals most of the data they need is already there, in the systems the business uses, though the constraints reside in the intrinsic and extrinsic quality of the data, whether the data are fit for the purpose. Both parties need to work around limitations, or attempt to improve the experiments, respectively the systems. 

Even if the data might have different characteristics, this doesn't mean that the methods applied by data professionals can't be used by scientists and vice-versa. The closer data professionals move from Data Analytics to Data Science, the higher the overlap between the business and scientific setup. 

Conversely, the problems data professionals meet have different characteristics. Scientists outlook is directed mainly at the phenomena and processes occurring in nature and society, where randomness, emergence and chaos seem to feel at home. Business processes deal more with predefined controlled structures, cyclicity, higher dependency between processes, feedback and delays. Even if the problems may seem to be different, they can be modeled with systems dynamics. 

Returning to data visualization and the problem of insight, there are multiple questions. Can we use simple designs or characterizations to find the answer to complex problems? Which must be the characteristics of a piece of information or knowledge to generate insight? How can a simple visualization generate an insight moment? 

Appealing to complexity theory, there are several general approaches in handling complexity. One approach resides in answering complexity with complexity. This means building complex data visualizations that attempt to model problem's complexity. For example, this could be done by building a complex model that reflects the problem studied, and build a set of complex visualizations that reflect the different important facets. Many data professionals advise against this approach as it goes against the simplicity principle. On the other hand, starting with something complex and removing the nonessential can prove to be an approachable strategy, even if it involves more effort. 

Another approach resides in reducing the complexity of the problem either by relaxing the constraints, or by breaking the problem into simple problems and addressing each one of them with visualizations. Relaxing the constraints allow studying upon case a more general problem or a linearization of the initial problem. Breaking down the problem into problems that can be easier solved, can help to better understand the general problem though we might lose the sight of emergence and other behavior that characterize complex systems.

Providing simple visualizations to complex problems implies a good understanding of the problem, its solution(s) and the overall context, which frankly is harder to achieve the more complex a problem is. For its understanding a problem requires a minimum of knowledge that needs to be reflected in the visualization(s). Even if some important aspects are assumed as known, they still need to be confirmed by the visualizations, otherwise any deviation from assumptions can lead to a new problem. Therefore, its questionable that simple visualizations can address the complexity of the problems in a general manner. 

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🔭Data Science: Control (Just the Quotes)

"An inference, if it is to have scientific value, must constitute a prediction concerning future data. If the inference is to be made purely with the help of the distribution theory of statistics, the experiments that constitute evidence for the inference must arise from a state of statistical control; until that state is reached, there is no universe, normal or otherwise, and the statistician’s calculations by themselves are an illusion if not a delusion. The fact is that when distribution theory is not applicable for lack of control, any inference, statistical or otherwise, is little better than a conjecture. The state of statistical control is therefore the goal of all experimentation. (William E Deming, "Statistical Method from the Viewpoint of Quality Control", 1939)

"Sampling is the science and art of controlling and measuring the reliability of useful statistical information through the theory of probability." (William E Deming, "Some Theory of Sampling", 1950)

"The well-known virtue of the experimental method is that it brings situational variables under tight control. It thus permits rigorous tests of hypotheses and confidential statements about causation. The correlational method, for its part, can study what man has not learned to control. Nature has been experimenting since the beginning of time, with a boldness and complexity far beyond the resources of science. The correlator’s mission is to observe and organize the data of nature’s experiments." (Lee J Cronbach, "The Two Disciplines of Scientific Psychology", The American Psychologist Vol. 12, 1957)

"In complex systems cause and effect are often not closely related in either time or space. The structure of a complex system is not a simple feedback loop where one system state dominates the behavior. The complex system has a multiplicity of interacting feedback loops. Its internal rates of flow are controlled by nonlinear relationships. The complex system is of high order, meaning that there are many system states (or levels). It usually contains positive-feedback loops describing growth processes as well as negative, goal-seeking loops. In the complex system the cause of a difficulty may lie far back in time from the symptoms, or in a completely different and remote part of the system. In fact, causes are usually found, not in prior events, but in the structure and policies of the system." (Jay W Forrester, "Urban dynamics", 1969)

"To adapt to a changing environment, the system needs a variety of stable states that is large enough to react to all perturbations but not so large as to make its evolution uncontrollably chaotic. The most adequate states are selected according to their fitness, either directly by the environment, or by subsystems that have adapted to the environment at an earlier stage. Formally, the basic mechanism underlying self-organization is the (often noise-driven) variation which explores different regions in the system’s state space until it enters an attractor. This precludes further variation outside the attractor, and thus restricts the freedom of the system’s components to behave independently. This is equivalent to the increase of coherence, or decrease of statistical entropy, that defines self-organization." (Francis Heylighen, "The Science Of Self-Organization And Adaptivity", 1970)

"Science consists simply of the formulation and testing of hypotheses based on observational evidence; experiments are important where applicable, but their function is merely to simplify observation by imposing controlled conditions." (Henry L Batten, "Evolution of the Earth", 1971)

"Thus, the construction of a mathematical model consisting of certain basic equations of a process is not yet sufficient for effecting optimal control. The mathematical model must also provide for the effects of random factors, the ability to react to unforeseen variations and ensure good control despite errors and inaccuracies." (Yakov Khurgin, "Did You Say Mathematics?", 1974)

"Uncontrolled variation is the enemy of quality." (W Edwards Deming, 1980)

"The methods of science include controlled experiments, classification, pattern recognition, analysis, and deduction. In the humanities we apply analogy, metaphor, criticism, and (e)valuation. In design we devise alternatives, form patterns, synthesize, use conjecture, and model solutions." (Béla H Bánáthy, "Designing Social Systems in a Changing World", 1996)

"A mathematical model uses mathematical symbols to describe and explain the represented system. Normally used to predict and control, these models provide a high degree of abstraction but also of precision in their application." (Lars Skyttner, "General Systems Theory: Ideas and Applications", 2001)

"A model is an imitation of reality and a mathematical model is a particular form of representation. We should never forget this and get so distracted by the model that we forget the real application which is driving the modelling. In the process of model building we are translating our real world problem into an equivalent mathematical problem which we solve and then attempt to interpret. We do this to gain insight into the original real world situation or to use the model for control, optimization or possibly safety studies." (Ian T Cameron & Katalin Hangos, "Process Modelling and Model Analysis", 2001)

"Dashboards and visualization are cognitive tools that improve your 'span of control' over a lot of business data. These tools help people visually identify trends, patterns and anomalies, reason about what they see and help guide them toward effective decisions. As such, these tools need to leverage people's visual capabilities. With the prevalence of scorecards, dashboards and other visualization tools now widely available for business users to review their data, the issue of visual information design is more important than ever." (Richard Brath & Michael Peters, "Dashboard Design: Why Design is Important," DM Direct, 2004)

"The methodology of feedback design is borrowed from cybernetics (control theory). It is based upon methods of controlled system model’s building, methods of system states and parameters estimation (identification), and methods of feedback synthesis. The models of controlled system used in cybernetics differ from conventional models of physics and mechanics in that they have explicitly specified inputs and outputs. Unlike conventional physics results, often formulated as conservation laws, the results of cybernetical physics are formulated in the form of transformation laws, establishing the possibilities and limits of changing properties of a physical system by means of control." (Alexander L Fradkov, "Cybernetical Physics: From Control of Chaos to Quantum Control", 2007)

"Put simply, statistics is a range of procedures for gathering, organizing, analyzing and presenting quantitative data. […] Essentially […], statistics is a scientific approach to analyzing numerical data in order to enable us to maximize our interpretation, understanding and use. This means that statistics helps us turn data into information; that is, data that have been interpreted, understood and are useful to the recipient. Put formally, for your project, statistics is the systematic collection and analysis of numerical data, in order to investigate or discover relationships among phenomena so as to explain, predict and control their occurrence." (Reva B Brown & Mark Saunders, "Dealing with Statistics: What You Need to Know", 2008)

"One technique employing correlational analysis is multiple regression analysis (MRA), in which a number of independent variables are correlated simultaneously (or sometimes sequentially, but we won’t talk about that variant of MRA) with some dependent variable. The predictor variable of interest is examined along with other independent variables that are referred to as control variables. The goal is to show that variable A influences variable B 'net of' the effects of all the other variables. That is to say, the relationship holds even when the effects of the control variables on the dependent variable are taken into account." (Richard E Nisbett, "Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking", 2015)

"The correlational technique known as multiple regression is used frequently in medical and social science research. This technique essentially correlates many independent (or predictor) variables simultaneously with a given dependent variable (outcome or output). It asks, 'Net of the effects of all the other variables, what is the effect of variable A on the dependent variable?' Despite its popularity, the technique is inherently weak and often yields misleading results. The problem is due to self-selection. If we don’t assign cases to a particular treatment, the cases may differ in any number of ways that could be causing them to differ along some dimension related to the dependent variable. We can know that the answer given by a multiple regression analysis is wrong because randomized control experiments, frequently referred to as the gold standard of research techniques, may give answers that are quite different from those obtained by multiple regression analysis." (Richard E Nisbett, "Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking", 2015)

"The theory behind multiple regression analysis is that if you control for everything that is related to the independent variable and the dependent variable by pulling their correlations out of the mix, you can get at the true causal relation between the predictor variable and the outcome variable. That’s the theory. In practice, many things prevent this ideal case from being the norm." (Richard E Nisbett, "Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking", 2015)

"Too little attention is given to the need for statistical control, or to put it more pertinently, since statistical control (randomness) is so rarely found, too little attention is given to the interpretation of data that arise from conditions not in statistical control." (William E Deming)

♟️Strategic Management: Holism (Just the Quotes)

"The systems approach to problems focuses on systems taken as a whole, not on their parts taken separately. Such an approach is concerned with total - system performance even when a change in only one or a few of its parts is contemplated because there are some properties of systems that can only be treated adequately from a holistic point of view. These properties derive from the relationship between parts of systems: how the parts interact and fit together." (Russell L Ackoff, "Towards a System of Systems Concepts", 1971) 

"A holistic perspective is essential in management. If we base management decisions on any other perspective, we are likely to experience results different from those intended because only the whole is reality." (Allan Savory & Jody Butterfield, "Holistic Management: A new framework for decision making", 1988)

"There are several world view assumptions present in enterprise engineering. The first assumption is that the enterprise can be viewed as a complex system. This is necessary because systems in organizations are systems of organized complexity. Complexity is the result of the multiplicity and intricacy of man’s interaction with other components of the system. Secondly, the enterprise is to be viewed as a system of processes. These processes are engineered both individually and holistically. The final assumption is the use of engineering rigor in transforming the enterprise. The enterprise engineering paradigm views the enterprise as a complex system of processes that can be engineered to accomplish specific organizational objectives. In the Enterprise Engineering paradigm, the enterprise is viewed as a complex system of processes that can be engineered to accomplish specific organizational objectives." (Donald H Liles, "Enterprise modeling within an enterprise engineering framework", 1996)

"Enterprise architecture is a holistic representation of all the components of the enterprise and the use of graphics and schemes are used to emphasize all parts of the enterprise, and how they are interrelated. [...] Enterprise architectures are used to deal with intra-organizational processes, interorganizational cooperation and coordination, and their shared use of information and information technologies. Business developments, such as outsourcing, partnership, alliances and Electronic Data Interchange, extend the need for architecture across company boundaries." (Gordon B Davis," The Blackwell encyclopedic dictionary of management information systems"‎, 1999)

"[...] information feedback about the real world not only alters our decisions within the context of existing frames and decision rules but also feeds back to alter our mental models. As our mental models change we change the structure of our systems, creating different decision rules and new strategies. The same information, processed and interpreted by a different decision rule, now yields a different decision. Altering the structure of our systems then alters their patterns of behavior. The development of systems thinking is a double-loop learning process in which we replace a reductionist, narrow, short-run, static view of the world with a holistic, broad, long-term, dynamic view and then redesign our policies and institutions accordingly." (John D Sterman, "Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"Enterprise architecture is the process of translating business vision and strategy into effective enterprise change by creating, communicating and improving the key requirements, principles and models that describe the enterprise's future state and enable its evolution. The scope of the enterprise architecture includes the people, processes, information and technology of the enterprise, and their relationships to one another and to the external environment. Enterprise architects compose holistic solutions that address the business challenges of the enterprise and support the governance needed to implement them." (Anne Lapkin et al, "Gartner Clarifies the Definition of the Term 'Enterprise Architecture", 2008)

"Enterprise architecture [is] a coherent whole of principles, methods, and models that are used in the design and realisation of an enterprise's organisational structure, business processes, information systems, and infrastructure. […] The most important characteristic of an enterprise architecture is that it provides a holistic view of the enterprise. […] To achieve this quality in enterprise architecture, bringing together information from formerly unrelated domains necessitates an approach that is understood by all those involved from those different domains." (Marc Lankhorst, "Enterprise Architecture at Work: Modelling, Communication and Analysis", 2009)

🕸Systems Engineering: Emergence (Just the Quotes)

"[Hierarchy is] the principle according to which entities meaningfully treated as wholes are built up of smaller entities which are themselves wholes […] and so on. In hierarchy, emergent properties denote the levels." (Peter Checkland, "Systems Thinking, Systems Practice", 1981)

"[…] self-organization is the spontaneous emergence of new structures and new forms of behavior in open systems far from equilibrium, characterized by internal feedback loops and described mathematically by nonlinear equations." (Fritjof Capra, "The web of life: a new scientific understanding of living systems", 1996)

"It may not be obvious at first, but the study of emergence and model-building go hand in hand. The essence of model-building is shearing away detail to get at essential elements. A model, by concentrating on selected aspects of the world, makes possible the prediction and planning that reveal new possibilities. That is exactly the problem we face in trying to develop a scientific understanding of emergence." (John H Holland, "Emergence" , Philosophica 59, 1997)

"When the behavior of the system depends on the behavior of the parts, the complexity of the whole must involve a description of the parts, thus it is large. The smaller the parts that must be described to describe the behavior of the whole, the larger the complexity of the entire system. […] A complex system is a system formed out of many components whose behavior is emergent, that is, the behavior of the system cannot be simply inferred from the behavior of its components." (Yaneer Bar-Yamm, "Dynamics of Complexity", 1997)

"Emergent self-organization in multi-agent systems appears to contradict the second law of thermodynamics. This paradox has been explained in terms of a coupling between the macro level that hosts self-organization (and an apparent reduction in entropy), and the micro level (where random processes greatly increase entropy). Metaphorically, the micro level serves as an entropy 'sink', permitting overall system entropy to increase while sequestering this increase from the interactions where self-organization is desired." (H Van Dyke Parunak & Sven Brueckner, "Entropy and Self-Organization in Multi-Agent Systems", Proceedings of the International Conference on Autonomous Agents, 2001)

"The phenomenon of emergence takes place at critical points of instability that arise from fluctuations in the environment, amplified by feedback loops." (Fritjof Capra, "The Hidden Connections", 2002)

"This spontaneous emergence of order at critical points of instability is one of the most important concepts of the new understanding of life. It is technically known as self-organization and is often referred to simply as ‘emergence’. It has been recognized as the dynamic origin of development, learning and evolution. In other words, creativity-the generation of new forms-is a key property of all living systems. And since emergence is an integral part of the dynamics of open systems, we reach the important conclusion that open systems develop and evolve. Life constantly reaches out into novelty." (Fritjof  Capra, "The Hidden Connections", 2002)

"Emergence is not really mysterious, although it may be complex. Emergence is brought about by the interactions between the parts of a system. The galloping horse illusion depends upon the persistence of the human retina/brain combination, for instance. Elemental gases bond in combination by sharing outer electrons, thereby altering the appearance and behavior of the combination. In every case of emergence, the source is interaction between the parts - sometimes, as with the brain, very many parts - so that the phenomenon defies simple explanation." (Derek Hitchins, "Advanced Systems Thinking, Engineering and Management", 2003)

"Emergence is the phenomenon of properties, capabilities and behaviours evident in the whole system that are not exclusively ascribable to any of its parts." (Derek Hitchins, "Advanced Systems Thinking, Engineering and Management", 2003)

"Another typical feature of theories of emergence is the layered view of nature. On this view, all things in nature belong to a certain level of existence, each according to its characteristic properties. These levels of existence constitute a hierarchy of increasing complexity that also corresponds to their order of appearance in the course of evolution." (Markus Eronen, "Emergence in the Philosophy of Mind", 2004)

"The basic concept of complexity theory is that systems show patterns of organization without organizer (autonomous or self-organization). Simple local interactions of many mutually interacting parts can lead to emergence of complex global structures. […] Complexity originates from the tendency of large dynamical systems to organize themselves into a critical state, with avalanches or 'punctuations' of all sizes. In the critical state, events which would otherwise be uncoupled became correlated." (Jochen Fromm, "The Emergence of Complexity", 2004)

"Complexity arises when emergent system-level phenomena are characterized by patterns in time or a given state space that have neither too much nor too little form. Neither in stasis nor changing randomly, these emergent phenomena are interesting, due to the coupling of individual and global behaviours as well as the difficulties they pose for prediction. Broad patterns of system behaviour may be predictable, but the system's specific path through a space of possible states is not." (Steve Maguire et al, "Complexity Science and Organization Studies", 2006)

"The beauty of nature insists on taking its time. Everything is prepared. Nothing is rushed. The rhythm of emergence is a gradual, slow beat; always inching its way forward, change remains faithful to itself until the new unfolds in the full confidence of true arrival. Because nothing is abrupt, the beginning of spring nearly always catches us unawares. It is there before we see it; and then we can look nowhere without seeing it. (John O'Donohue, "To Bless the Space Between Us: A Book of Blessings", 2008)

"Although the potential for chaos resides in every system, chaos, when it emerges, frequently stays within the bounds of its attractor(s): No point or pattern of points is ever repeated, but some form of patterning emerges, rather than randomness. Life scientists in different areas have noticed that life seems able to balance order and chaos at a place of balance known as the edge of chaos. Observations from both nature and artificial life suggest that the edge of chaos favors evolutionary adaptation." (Terry Cooke-Davies et al, "Exploring the Complexity of Projects", 2009)

"If universality is one of the observed characteristics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of study, a second characteristic that flows from the study of these systems is that of emergence. As self-organizing systems go about their daily business, they are constantly exchanging matter and energy with their environment, and this allows them to remain in a state that is far from equilibrium. That allows spontaneous behavior to give rise to new patterns." (Terry Cooke-Davies et al, "Exploring the Complexity of Projects", 2009)

"The notion of emergence is used in a variety of disciplines such as evolutionary biology, the philosophy of mind and sociology, as well as in computational and complexity theory. It is associated with non-reductive naturalism, which claims that a hierarchy of levels of reality exist. While the emergent level is constituted by the underlying level, it is nevertheless autonomous from the constituting level. As a naturalistic theory, it excludes non-natural explanations such as vitalistic forces or entelechy. As non-reductive naturalism, emergence theory claims that higher-level entities cannot be explained by lower-level entities." (Martin Neumann, "An Epistemological Gap in Simulation Technologies and the Science of Society", 2011)

"System theorists know that it's easy to couple simple-to-understand systems into a ‘super system’ that's capable of displaying behavioral modes that cannot be seen in any of its constituent parts. This is the process called ‘emergence’." (John L Casti, [interview with Austin Allen], 2012)

"Every system that has existed emerged somehow, from somewhere, at some point. Complexity science emphasizes the study of how systems evolve through their disorganized parts into an organized whole." (Lawrence K Samuels, "Defense of Chaos: The Chaology of Politics, Economics and Human Action", 2013)

"Things evolve to evolve. Evolutionary processes are the linchpin of change. These processes of discovery represent a complexity of simple systems that flux in perpetual tension as they teeter at the edge of chaos. This whirlwind of emergence is responsible for the spontaneous order and higher, organized complexity so noticeable in biological evolution - one–celled critters beefing up to become multicellular organisms." (Lawrence K Samuels, "Defense of Chaos: The Chaology of Politics, Economics and Human Action", 2013)

"This spontaneous emergence of order at critical points of instability, which is often referred to simply as 'emergence', is one of the hallmarks of life. It has been recognized as the dynamic origin of development, learning, and evolution. In other words, creativity-the generation of new forms-is a key property of all living systems." (Fritjof Capra, "The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision", 2014)

More quotes on "Emergence" at the-web-of-knowledge.blogspot.com.

🕸Systems Engineering: Sensitivity (Just the Quotes)

"An exceedingly small cause which escapes our notice determines a considerable effect that we cannot fail to see, and then we say the effect is due to chance. If we knew exactly the laws of nature and the situation of the universe at the initial moment, we could predict exactly the situation of that same universe at a succeeding moment. But even if it were the case that the natural laws had no longer any secret for us, we could still only know the initial situation 'approximately'. If that enabled us to predict the succeeding situation with 'the same approximation', that is all we require, and we should say that the phenomenon had been predicted, that it is governed by laws. But it is not always so; it may happen that small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the final phenomena. A small error in the former will produce an enormous error in the latter. Prediction becomes impossible, and we have the fortuitous phenomenon. (Jules H Poincaré, "Science and Method", 1908)

"The predictions of physical theories for the most part concern situations where initial conditions can be precisely specified. If such initial conditions are not found in nature, they can be arranged." (Anatol Rapoport, "The Search for Simplicity", 1956)

"[...] the influence of a single butterfly is not only a fine detail - it is confined to a small volume. Some of the numerical methods which seem to be well adapted for examining the intensification of errors are not suitable for studying the dispersion of errors from restricted to unrestricted regions. One hypothesis, unconfirmed, is that the influence of a butterfly's wings will spread in turbulent air, but not in calm air." (Edward N Lorenz, [talk] 1972)

"Everywhere […] in the Universe, we discern that closed physical systems evolve in the same sense from ordered states towards a state of complete disorder called thermal equilibrium. This cannot be a consequence of known laws of change, since […] these laws are time symmetric- they permit […] time-reverse. […] The initial conditions play a decisive role in endowing the world with its sense of temporal direction. […] some prescription for initial conditions is crucial if we are to understand […]" (John D Barrow, "Theories of Everything: The Quest for Ultimate Explanation", 1991)

"In nonlinear systems - and the economy is most certainly nonlinear - chaos theory tells you that the slightest uncertainty in your knowledge of the initial conditions will often grow inexorably. After a while, your predictions are nonsense." (M Mitchell Waldrop, "Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos", 1992)

"In the everyday world of human affairs, no one is surprised to learn that a tiny event over here can have an enormous effect over there. For want of a nail, the shoe was lost, et cetera. But when the physicists started paying serious attention to nonlinear systems in their own domain, they began to realize just how profound a principle this really was. […] Tiny perturbations won't always remain tiny. Under the right circumstances, the slightest uncertainty can grow until the system's future becomes utterly unpredictable - or, in a word, chaotic." (M Mitchell Waldrop, "Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos", 1992)

"Symmetry breaking in psychology is governed by the nonlinear causality of complex systems (the 'butterfly effect'), which roughly means that a small cause can have a big effect. Tiny details of initial individual perspectives, but also cognitive prejudices, may 'enslave' the other modes and lead to one dominant view." (Klaus Mainzer, "Thinking in Complexity", 1994)

"How surprising it is that the laws of nature and the initial conditions of the universe should allow for the existence of beings who could observe it. Life as we know it would be impossible if any one of several physical quantities had slightly different values." (Steven Weinberg, "Life in the Quantum Universe", Scientific American, 1995)

"Unlike classical mathematics, net math exhibits nonintuitive traits. In general, small variations in input in an interacting swarm can produce huge variations in output. Effects are disproportional to causes - the butterfly effect." (Kevin Kelly, "Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems and the Economic World", 1995)

"Swarm systems generate novelty for three reasons: (1) They are 'sensitive to initial conditions' - a scientific shorthand for saying that the size of the effect is not proportional to the size of the cause - so they can make a surprising mountain out of a molehill. (2) They hide countless novel possibilities in the exponential combinations of many interlinked individuals. (3) They don’t reckon individuals, so therefore individual variation and imperfection can be allowed. In swarm systems with heritability, individual variation and imperfection will lead to perpetual novelty, or what we call evolution." (Kevin Kelly, "Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems and the Economic World", 1995)

"Chaos theory reconciles our intuitive sense of free will with the deterministic laws of nature. However, it has an even deeper philosophical ramification. Not only do we have freedom to control our actions, but also the sensitivity to initial conditions implies that even our smallest act can drastically alter the course of history, for better or for worse. Like the butterfly flapping its wings, the results of our behavior are amplified with each day that passes, eventually producing a completely different world than would have existed in our absence!" (Julien C Sprott, "Strange Attractors: Creating Patterns in Chaos", 2000)

"A sudden change in the evolutive dynamics of a system (a ‘surprise’) can emerge, apparently violating a symmetrical law that was formulated by making a reduction on some (or many) finite sequences of numerical data. This is the crucial point. As we have said on a number of occasions, complexity emerges as a breakdown of symmetry (a system that, by evolving with continuity, suddenly passes from one attractor to another) in laws which, expressed in mathematical form, are symmetrical. Nonetheless, this breakdown happens. It is the surprise, the paradox, a sort of butterfly effect that can highlight small differences between numbers that are very close to one another in the continuum of real numbers; differences that may evade the experimental interpretation of data, but that may increasingly amplify in the system’s dynamics." (Cristoforo S Bertuglia & Franco Vaio, "Nonlinearity, Chaos, and Complexity: The Dynamics of Natural and Social Systems", 2003)

"[…] we would like to observe that the butterfly effect lies at the root of many events which we call random. The final result of throwing a dice depends on the position of the hand throwing it, on the air resistance, on the base that the die falls on, and on many other factors. The result appears random because we are not able to take into account all of these factors with sufficient accuracy. Even the tiniest bump on the table and the most imperceptible move of the wrist affect the position in which the die finally lands. It would be reasonable to assume that chaos lies at the root of all random phenomena." (Iwo Białynicki-Birula & Iwona Białynicka-Birula, "Modeling Reality: How Computers Mirror Life", 2004)

"Yet, with the discovery of the butterfly effect in chaos theory, it is now understood that there is some emergent order over time even in weather occurrence, so that weather prediction is not next to being impossible as was once thought, although the science of meteorology is far from the state of perfection." (Peter Baofu, "The Future of Complexity: Conceiving a Better Way to Understand Order and Chaos", 2007)

"The butterfly effect demonstrates that complex dynamical systems are highly responsive and interconnected webs of feedback loops. It reminds us that we live in a highly interconnected world. Thus our actions within an organization can lead to a range of unpredicted responses and unexpected outcomes. This seriously calls into doubt the wisdom of believing that a major organizational change intervention will necessarily achieve its pre-planned and highly desired outcomes. Small changes in the social, technological, political, ecological or economic conditions can have major implications over time for organizations, communities, societies and even nations." (Elizabeth McMillan, "Complexity, Management and the Dynamics of Change: Challenges for practice", 2008)

"The 'butterfly effect' is at most a hypothesis, and it was certainly not Lorenz’s intention to change it to a metaphor for the importance of small event. […] Dynamical systems that exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions produce remarkably different solutions for two initial values that are close to each other. Sensitive dependence on initial conditions is one of the properties to exhibit chaotic behavior. In addition, at least one further implicit assumption is that the system is bounded in some finite region, i.e., the system cannot blow up. When one uses expanding dynamics, a way of pull-back of too much expanded phase volume to some finite domain is necessary to get chaos." (Péter Érdi, "Complexity Explained", 2008)

"One of the remarkable features of these complex systems created by replicator dynamics is that infinitesimal differences in starting positions create vastly different patterns. This sensitive dependence on initial conditions is often called the butterfly - effect aspect of complex systems - small changes in the replicator dynamics or in the starting point can lead to enormous differences in outcome, and they change one’s view of how robust the current reality is. If it is complex, one small change could have led to a reality that is quite different." (David Colander & Roland Kupers, "Complexity and the art of public policy : solving society’s problems from the bottom up", 2014)

More quotes on the "Sensitivity of initial conditions" (aka "The Butterfly Effect") at the-web-of-knowledge.blogspot.com.

🕸Systems Engineering: Entropy (Just the Quotes)

"The second law of thermodynamics appears solely as a law of probability, entropy as a measure of the probability, and the increase of entropy is equivalent to a statement that more probable events follow less probable ones." (Max Planck, "A Survey of Physics", 1923)

"True equilibria can occur only in closed systems and that, in open systems, disequilibria called ‘steady states’, or ‘flow equilibria’ are the predominant and characteristic feature. According to the second law of thermodynamics a closed system must eventually attain a time-independent equilibrium state, with maximum entropy and minimum free energy. An open system may, under certain conditions, attain a time-independent state where the system remains constant as a whole and in its phases, though there is a continuous flow of component materials. This is called a steady state. Steady states are irreversible as a whole. […] A closed system in equilibrium does not need energy for its preservation, nor can energy be obtained from it. In order to perform work, a system must be in disequilibrium, tending toward equilibrium and maintaining a steady state, Therefore the character of an open system is the necessary condition for the continuous working capacity of the organism." (Ludwig on Bertalanffy, "Theoretische Biologie: Band 1: Allgemeine Theorie, Physikochemie, Aufbau und Entwicklung des Organismus", 1932)

"An isolated system or a system in a uniform environment (which for the present consideration we do best to include as a part of the system we contemplate) increases its entropy and more or less rapidly approaches the inert state of maximum entropy. We now recognize this fundamental law of physics to be just the natural tendency of things to approach the chaotic state (the same tendency that the books of a library or the piles of papers and manuscripts on a writing desk display) unless we obviate it. (The analogue of irregular heat motion, in this case, is our handling those objects now and again without troubling to put them back in their proper places.)" (Erwin Schrödinger, "What is Life?", 1944)

"Every process, event, happening - call it what you will; in a word, everything that is going on in Nature means an increase of the entropy of the part of the world where it is going on. Thus a living organism continually increases its entropy – or, as you may say, produces positive entropy – and thus tends to approach the dangerous state of maximum entropy, which is death. It can only keep aloof from it, i.e. alive, by continually drawing from its environment negative entropy – which is something very positive as we shall immediately see. What an organism feeds upon is negative entropy. Or, to put it less paradoxically, the essential thing in metabolism is that the organism succeeds in freeing itself from all the entropy it cannot help producing while alive." (Erwin Schrödinger, "What is Life?", 1944)

"Time itself will come to an end. For entropy points the direction of time. Entropy is the measure of randomness. When all system and order in the universe have vanished, when randomness is at its maximum, and entropy cannot be increased, when there is no longer any sequence of cause and effect, in short when the universe has run down, there will be no direction to time - there will be no time." (Lincoln Barnett, "The Universe and Dr. Einstein", 1948)

"Just as entropy is a measure of disorganization, the information carried by a set of messages is a measure of organization. In fact, it is possible to interpret the information carried by a message as essentially the negative of its entropy, and the negative logarithm of its probability. That is, the more probable the message, the less information it gives. Clichés, for example, are less illuminating than great poems." (Norbert Wiener, "The Human Use of Human Beings", 1950)

"[…] the characteristic tendency of entropy is to increase. As entropy increases, the universe, and all closed systems in the universe, tend naturally to deteriorate and lose their distinctiveness, to move from the least to the most probable state, from a state of organization and differentiation in which distinctions and forms exist, to a state of chaos and sameness." (Norbert Wiener, "The Human Use of Human Beings", 1950)

"The powerful notion of entropy, which comes from a very special branch of physics […] is certainly useful in the study of communication and quite helpful when applied in the theory of language." (J Robert Oppenheimer, "The Growth of Science and the Structure of Culture", Daedalus 87 (1), 1958) 

"Entropy is a measure of the heat energy in a substance that has been lost and is no longer available for work. It is a measure of the deterioration of a system." (William B. Sill & Norman Hoss (Eds.), "Popular Science Encyclopedia of the Sciences", 1963)

"Suppose we divide the space into little volume elements. If we have black and white molecules, how many ways could we distribute them among the volume elements so that white is on one side and black is on the other? On the other hand, how many ways could we distribute them with no restriction on which goes where? Clearly, there are many more ways to arrange them in the latter case. We measure 'disorder' by the number of ways that the insides can be arranged, so that from the outside it looks the same. The logarithm of that number of ways is the entropy. The number of ways in the separated case is less, so the entropy is less, or the 'disorder' is less." (Richard P Feynman, "Order And Entropy" ["The Feynman Lectures on Physics"], 1964)

"The homeostatic principle does not apply literally to the functioning of all complex living systems, in that in counteracting entropy they move toward growth and expansion." (Daniel Katz, "The Social Psychology of Organizations", 1966)

"Higher, directed forms of energy (e.g., mechanical, electric, chemical) are dissipated, that is, progressively converted into the lowest form of energy, i.e., undirected heat movement of molecules; chemical systems tend toward equilibria with maximum entropy; machines wear out owing to friction; in communication channels, information can only be lost by conversion of messages into noise but not vice versa, and so forth." (Ludwig von Bertalanffy, "Robots, Men and Minds", 1967)

"To adapt to a changing environment, the system needs a variety of stable states that is large enough to react to all perturbations but not so large as to make its evolution uncontrollably chaotic. The most adequate states are selected according to their fitness, either directly by the environment, or by subsystems that have adapted to the environment at an earlier stage. Formally, the basic mechanism underlying self-organization is the (often noise-driven) variation which explores different regions in the system’s state space until it enters an attractor. This precludes further variation outside the attractor, and thus restricts the freedom of the system’s components to behave independently. This is equivalent to the increase of coherence, or decrease of statistical entropy, that defines self-organization." (Francis Heylighen, "The Science Of Self-Organization And Adaptivity", 1970)

"In an isolated system, which cannot exchange energy and matter with the surroundings, this tendency is expressed in terms of a function of the macroscopic state of the system: the entropy." (Ilya Prigogine, "Thermodynamics of Evolution", 1972) 

"There is nothing supernatural about the process of self-organization to states of higher entropy; it is a general property of systems, regardless of their materials and origin. It does not violate the Second Law of thermodynamics since the decrease in entropy within an open system is always offset by the increase of entropy in its surroundings." (Ervin László, "Introduction to Systems Philosophy", 1972)

"Entropy theory, on the other hand, is not concerned with the probability of succession in a series of items but with the overall distribution of kinds of items in a given arrangement." (Rudolf Arnheim, "Entropy and Art: An Essay on Disorder and Order", 1974) 

"The amount of information conveyed by the message increases as the amount of uncertainty as to what message actually will be produced becomes greater. A message which is one out of ten possible messages conveys a smaller amount of information than a message which is one out of a million possible messages. The entropy of communication theory is a measure of this uncertainty and the uncertainty, or entropy, is taken as the measure of the amount of information conveyed by a message from a source. The more we know about what message the source will produce, the less uncertainty, the less the entropy, and the less the information." (John R Pierce, "An Introduction to Information Theory: Symbols, Signals and Noise", 1979) 

"Thus, an increase in entropy means a decrease in our ability to change thermal energy, the energy of heat, into mechanical energy. An increase of entropy means a decrease of available energy." (John R Pierce, "An Introduction to Information Theory: Symbols, Signals and Noise", 1979)

"The third model regards mind as an information processing system. This is the model of mind subscribed to by cognitive psychologists and also to some extent by the ego psychologists. Since an acquisition of information entails maximization of negative entropy and complexity, this model of mind assumes mind to be an open system." (Thaddus E Weckowicz, "Models of Mental Illness", 1984) 

"Disorder increases with time because we measure time in the direction in which disorder increases." (Stephen W Hawking, "The Direction of Time", New Scientist 115 (1568), 1987)

"Somehow, after all, as the universe ebbs toward its final equilibrium in the featureless heat bath of maximum entropy, it manages to create interesting structures." (James Gleick, "Chaos: Making a New Science", 1987)

"Just like a computer, we must remember things in the order in which entropy increases. This makes the second law of thermodynamics almost trivial. Disorder increases with time because we measure time in the direction in which disorder increases."  (Stephen Hawking, "A Brief History of Time", 1988)

"The new information technologies can be seen to drive societies toward increasingly dynamic high-energy regions further and further from thermodynamical equilibrium, characterized by decreasing specific entropy and increasingly dense free-energy flows, accessed and processed by more and more complex social, economic, and political structures." (Ervin László, "Information Technology and Social Change: An Evolutionary Systems Analysis", Behavioral Science 37, 1992) 

"The second law of thermodynamics, which requires average entropy (or disorder) to increase, does not in any way forbid local order from arising through various mechanisms of self-organization, which can turn accidents into frozen ones producing extensive regularities. Again, such mechanisms are not restricted to complex adaptive systems." (Murray Gell-Mann, "What is Complexity?", Complexity Vol 1 (1), 1995)

"All systems evolve, although the rates of evolution may vary over time both between and within systems. The rate of evolution is a function of both the inherent stability of the system and changing environmental circumstances. But no system can be stabilized forever. For the universe as a whole, an isolated system, time’s arrow points toward greater and greater breakdown, leading to complete molecular chaos, maximum entropy, and heat death. For open systems, including the living systems that are of major interest to us and that interchange matter and energy with their external environments, time’s arrow points to evolution toward greater and greater complexity. Thus, the universe consists of islands of increasing order in a sea of decreasing order. Open systems evolve and maintain structure by exporting entropy to their external environments." (L Douglas Kiel, "Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences: Foundations and Applications", 1996)

"Contrary to what happens at equilibrium, or near equilibrium, systems far from equilibrium do not conform to any minimum principle that is valid for functions of free energy or entropy production." (Ilya Prigogine, "The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos, and the New Laws of Nature", 1996) 

"Complex systems operate under conditions far from equilibrium. Complex systems need a constant flow of energy to change, evolve and survive as complex entities. Equilibrium, symmetry and complete stability mean death. Just as the flow, of energy is necessary to fight entropy and maintain the complex structure of the system, society can only survive as a process. It is defined not by its origins or its goals, but by what it is doing." (Paul Cilliers,"Complexity and Postmodernism: Understanding Complex Systems", 1998)

"In a closed system, the change in entropy must always be 'positive', meaning toward death. However, in open biological or social systems, entropy can be arrested and may even be transformed into negative entropy - a process of more complete organization and enhanced ability to transform resources. Why? Because the system imports energy and resources from its environment, leading to renewal. This is why education and learning are so important, as they provide new and stimulating input (termed neg-entropy) that can transform each of us." (Stephen G Haines, "The Managers Pocket Guide to Systems Thinking & Learning", 1998)

"Physical systems are subject to the force of entropy, which increases until eventually the entire system fails. The tendency toward maximum entropy is a movement to disorder, complete lack of resource transformation, and death." (Stephen G Haines, "The Managers Pocket Guide to Systems Thinking & Learning", 1998)

"All systems have a tendency toward maximum entropy, disorder, and death. Importing resources from the environment is key to long-term viability; closed systems move toward this disorganization faster than open systems." (Stephen G Haines, "The Systems Thinking Approach to Strategic Planning and Management", 2000)

"Defined from a societal standpoint, information may be seen as an entity which reduces maladjustment between system and environment. In order to survive as a thermodynamic entity, all social systems are dependent upon an information flow. This explanation is derived from the parallel between entropy and information where the latter is regarded as negative entropy (negentropy). In more common terms information is a form of processed data or facts about objects, events or persons, which are meaningful for the receiver, inasmuch as an increase in knowledge reduces uncertainty." (Lars Skyttner, "General Systems Theory: Ideas and Applications", 2001)

"Emergent self-organization in multi-agent systems appears to contradict the second law of thermodynamics. This paradox has been explained in terms of a coupling between the macro level that hosts self-organization (and an apparent reduction in entropy), and the micro level (where random processes greatly increase entropy). Metaphorically, the micro level serves as an entropy 'sink', permitting overall system entropy to increase while sequestering this increase from the interactions where self-organization is desired." (H Van Dyke Parunak & Sven Brueckner, "Entropy and Self-Organization in Multi-Agent Systems", Proceedings of the International Conference on Autonomous Agents, 2001)

"Entropy [...] is the amount of disorder or randomness present in any system. All non-living systems tend toward disorder; left alone they will eventually lose all motion and degenerate into an inert mass. When this permanent stage is reached and no events occur, maximum entropy is attained. A living system can, for a finite time, avert this unalterable process by importing energy from its environment. It is then said to create negentropy, something which is characteristic of all kinds of life." (Lars Skyttner, "General Systems Theory: Ideas and Applications", 2001)

"The acquisition of information is a flow from noise to order - a process converting entropy to redundancy. During this process, the amount of information decreases but is compensated by constant recoding. In the recoding the amount of information per unit increases by means of a new symbol which represents the total amount of the old. The maturing thus implies information condensation. Simultaneously, the redundance decreases, which render the information more difficult to interpret." (Lars Skyttner, "General Systems Theory: Ideas and Applications", 2001)

"The function of living matter is apparently to expand the organization of the universe. Here, locally decreased entropy as a result of biological order in existing life is invalidating the effects of the second law of thermodynamics, although at the expense of increased entropy in the whole system. It is the running down of the universe that made the sun and the earth possible. It is the running down of the sun that made life and us possible." (Lars Skyttner, "General Systems Theory: Ideas and Applications", 2001)

"Nature normally hates power laws. In ordinary systems all quantities follow bell curves, and correlations decay rapidly, obeying exponential laws. But all that changes if the system is forced to undergo a phase transition. Then power laws emerge-nature's unmistakable sign that chaos is departing in favor of order. The theory of phase transitions told us loud and clear that the road from disorder to order is maintained by the powerful forces of self-organization and is paved by power laws. It told us that power laws are not just another way of characterizing a system's behavior. They are the patent signatures of self-organization in complex systems." (Albert-László Barabási, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life", 2002)

"Entropy is not about speeds or positions of particles, the way temperature and pressure and volume are, but about our lack of information." (Hans C von Baeyer," Information, The New Language of Science", 2003)

"The total disorder in the universe, as measured by the quantity that physicists call entropy, increases steadily steadily as we go from past to future. On the other hand, the total order in the universe, as measured by the complexity and permanence of organized structures, also increases steadily as we go from past to future." (Freeman Dyson, [Page-Barbour lecture], 2004)

"At the foundation of classical thermodynamics are the first and second laws. The first law formulates that the total energy of a system is conserved, while the second law states that the entropy of an isolated system can only increase. The second law implies that the free energy of an isolated system is successively degraded by diabatic processes over time, leading to entropy production. This eventually results in an equilibrium state of maximum entropy. In its statistical interpretation, the direction towards higher entropy can be interpreted as a transition to more probable states." (Axel Kleidon & Ralph D Lorenz, "Entropy Production by Earth System Processes" [in "Non- quilibrium Thermodynamics and the Production of Entropy"], 2005)

"However, the law of accelerating returns pertains to evolution, which is not a closed system. It takes place amid great chaos and indeed depends on the disorder in its midst, from which it draws its options for diversity. And from these options, an evolutionary process continually prunes its choices to create ever greater order."  (Ray Kurzweil, "The Singularity is Near", 2005)

"The second law of thermodynamics states that in an isolated system, entropy can only increase, not decrease. Such systems evolve to their state of maximum entropy, or thermodynamic equilibrium. Therefore, physical self-organizing systems cannot be isolated: they require a constant input of matter or energy with low entropy, getting rid of the internally generated entropy through the output of heat ('dissipation'). This allows them to produce ‘dissipative structures’ which maintain far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Life is a clear example of order far from thermodynamic equilibrium." (Carlos Gershenson, "Design and Control of Self-organizing Systems", 2007)

"We have to be aware that even in mathematical and physical models of self-organizing systems, it is the observer who ascribes properties, aspects, states, and probabilities; and therefore entropy or order to the system. But organization is more than low entropy: it is structure that has a function or purpose." (Carlos Gershenson, "Design and Control of Self-organizing Systems", 2007)

"Heat is the energy of random chaotic motion, and entropy is the amount of hidden microscopic information." (Leonard Susskind, "The Black Hole War", 2008)

"Second Law of thermodynamics is not an equality, but an inequality, asserting merely that a certain quantity referred to as the entropy of an isolated system - which is a measure of the system’s disorder, or ‘randomness’ - is greater (or at least not smaller) at later times than it was at earlier times." (Roger Penrose, "Cycles of Time: An Extraordinary New View of the Universe", 2010) 

"The laws of thermodynamics tell us something quite different. Economic activity is merely borrowing low-entropy energy inputs from the environment and transforming them into temporary products and services of value. In the transformation process, often more energy is expended and lost to the environment than is embedded in the particular good or service being produced." (Jeremy Rifkin, "The Third Industrial Revolution", 2011)

"In a physical system, information is the opposite of entropy, as it involves uncommon and highly correlated configurations that are difficult to arrive at." (César A Hidalgo, "Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies", 2015)

"The passage of time and the action of entropy bring about ever-greater complexity - a branching, blossoming tree of possibilities. Blossoming disorder (things getting worse), now unfolding within the constraints of the physics of our universe, creates novel opportunities for spontaneous ordered complexity to arise." (D J MacLennan, "Frozen to Life", 2015)

"Information theory leads to the quantification of the information content of the source, as denoted by entropy, the characterization of the information-bearing capacity of the communication channel, as related to its noise characteristics, and consequently the establishment of the relationship between the information content of the source and the capacity of the channel. In short, information theory provides a quantitative measure of the information contained in message signals and help determine the capacity of a communication system to transfer this information from source to sink over a noisy channel in a reliable fashion." (Ali Grami, "Information Theory", 2016)

"The Second Law of Thermodynamics states that in an isolated system (one that is not taking in energy), entropy never decreases. (The First Law is that energy is conserved; the Third, that a temperature of absolute zero is unreachable.) Closed systems inexorably become less structured, less organized, less able to accomplish interesting and useful outcomes, until they slide into an equilibrium of gray, tepid, homogeneous monotony and stay there." (Steven Pinker, "The Second Law of Thermodynamics", 2017)

"In information theory this notion, introduced by Claude Shannon, is used to express unpredictability of information content. For instance, if a data set containing n items was divided into k groups each comprising n i items, then the entropy of such a partition is H = p 1 log( p 1 ) + … + p k log( p k ), where p i = n i / n . In case of two alternative partitions, the mutual information is a measure of the mutual dependence between these partitions." (Slawomir T Wierzchon, "Ensemble Clustering Data Mining and Databases", 2018) [where i is used as index]

"Entropy is a measure of amount of uncertainty or disorder present in the system within the possible probability distribution. The entropy and amount of unpredictability are directly proportional to each other." ("G Suseela & Y Asnath V Phamila, "Security Framework for Smart Visual Sensor Networks", 2019)

"In the physics [entropy is the] rate of system's messiness or disorder in a physical system. In the social systems theory - social entropy is a sociological theory that evaluates social behaviors using a method based on the second law of thermodynamics." (Justína Mikulášková et al, "Spiral Management: New Concept of the Social Systems Management", 2020)

More quotes on "Entropy" at the-web-of-knowledge.blogspot.com.