🧭💹Business Intelligence: Perspectives (Part XVIII: There’s More to Noise)

Business Intelligence Series

Visualizations should be built with an audience's characteristics in mind! Upon case, it might be sufficient to show only values or labels of importance (minima, maxima, inflexion points, exceptions, trends), while other times it might be needed to show all or most of the values to provide an accurate extended perspective. It even might be useful to allow users switching between the different perspectives to reduce the clutter when navigating the data or look at the patterns revealed by the clutter. 

In data-based storytelling are typically shown the points, labels and further elements that support the story, the aspects the readers should focus on, though this approach limits the navigability and users’ overall experience. The audience should be able to compare magnitudes and make inferences based on what is shown, and the accurate decoding shouldn’t be taken as given, especially when the audience can associate different meanings to what’s available and what’s missing. 

In decision-making, selecting only some well-chosen values or perspectives to show might increase the chances for a decision to be made, though is this equitable? Cherry-picking may be justified by the purpose, though is in general not a recommended practice! What is not shown can be as important as what is shown, and people should be aware of the implications!

One person’s noise can be another person’s signal. Patterns in the noise can provide more insight compared with the trends revealed in the "unnoisy" data shown! Probably such scenarios are rare, though it’s worth investigating what hides behind the noise. The choice of scale, the use of special types of visualizations or the building of models can reveal more. If it’s not possible to identify automatically such scenarios using the standard software, the users should have the possibility of changing the scale and perspective as seems fit. 

Identifying patterns in what seems random can prove to be a challenge no matter the context and the experience in the field. Occasionally, one might need to go beyond the general methods available and statistical packages can help when used intelligently. However, a presenter’s challenge is to find a plausible narrative around the findings and communicate it further adequately. Additional capabilities must be available to confirm the hypotheses framed and other aspects related to this approach.

It's ideal to build data models and a set of visualizations around them. Most probable some noise may be removed in the process, while other noise will be further investigated. However, this should be done through adjustable visual filters because what is removed can be important as well. Rare events do occur, probably more often than we are aware and they may remain hidden until we find the right perspective that takes them into consideration. 

Probably, some of the noise can be explained by special events that don’t need to be that rare. The challenge is to identify those parameters, associations, models and perspectives that reveal such insights. One’s gut feeling and experience can help in this direction, though novel scenarios can surprise us as well.

Not in every set of data one can find patterns, respectively a story trying to come out. Whether we can identify something worth revealing depends also on the data available at our disposal, respectively on whether the chosen data allow identifying significant patterns. Occasionally, the focus might be too narrow, too wide or too shallow. It’s important to look behind the obvious, to look at data from different perspectives, even if the data seems dull. It’s ideal to have the tools and knowledge needed to explore such cases and here the exposure to other real-life similar scenarios is probably critical!

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🗄️Data Management: Data Governance (Part III: Taming the Complexity)

Data Management Series

The Chief Data Officer (CDO) or the “Head of the Data Team” is one of the most challenging jobs because is more of a "political" than a technical role. It requires the ideal candidate to be able to throw and catch curved balls almost all the time, and one must be able to play ball with all the parties having an interest in data (aka stakeholders). It’s a full-time job that requires the combination of management and technical skillsets, and both are important! The focus will change occasionally in one direction more than in the other, with important fluctuations. 

Moreover, even if one masters the technical and managerial aspects, the combination of the two gives birth to situations that require further expertise – applied systems thinking being probably the most important. This, also because there are so many points of failure that it's challenging to address all the important causes. Therefore, it’s critical to be a system thinker, to have an experienced team and make use adequately of its experience! 

In a complex word, in which even the smallest constraint or opportunity can have an important impact especially when it’s involved in the early stages of the processes taking place in organizations. It relies on the manager’s and team’s skillset, their inspiration, the way the business reacts to the tasks involved and probably many other aspects that make things work. It takes considerable effort until the whole mechanism works, and even more time to make things work efficiently. The best metaphor is probably the one of a small combat team in which everybody has their place and skillset in the mechanism, independently if one talks about strategy, tactics or operations. 

Unfortunately, building such teams takes time, and the more people are involved, the more complex this endeavor becomes. The manager and the team must meet somewhere in the middle in what concerns the philosophy, the execution of the various endeavors, the way of working together to achieve the same goals. There are multiple forces pulling in all directions and it takes time until one can align the goals, respectively the effort. 

The most challenging forces are the ones between the business and the data team, respectively the business and data requirements, forces that don’t necessarily converge. Working in small organizations, the two parties have in theory more challenges to overcome the challenges and a team’s experience can weight a lot in the process, though as soon the scale changes, the number of challenges to be overcome changes exponentially (there are however different exponential functions in which the basis and exponent make the growth rapid). 

In big organizations can appear other parties that have the same force to pull the weight in one direction or another. Thus, the political aspects become more complex to the degree that the technologies must follow the political decisions, with all the positive and negative implications deriving from this. As comparison, think about the challenges from moving from two to three or more moving bodies orbiting each other, resulting in a chaotic dynamical system for most initial conditions. 

Of course, a business’ context doesn’t have to create such complexity, though when things are unchecked, when delays in decision-making as well as other typical events occur, when there’s no structure, strategy, coordinated effort, or any other important components, the chances for chaotic behavior are quite high with the pass of time. This is just a model to explain real life situations that seem similar on the surface but prove to be quite complex when diving deeper. That’s probably why a CDO’s role as tamer of complexity is important and challenging!

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🗄️Data Management: Data Culture (Part IV: Quo vadis? [Where are you going?])

Data Management Series

The people working for many years in the fields of BI/Data Analytics, Data and Process Management probably met many reactions that at the first sight seem funny, though they reflect bigger issues existing in organizations: people don’t always understand the data they work with, how data are brought together as part of the processes they support, respectively how data can be used to manage and optimize the respective processes. Moreover, occasionally people torture the data until it confesses something that doesn’t necessarily reflect the reality. It’s even more deplorable when the conclusions are used for decision-making, managing or optimizing the process. In extremis, the result is an iterative process that creates more and bigger issues than whose it was supposed to solve!

Behind each blunder there are probably bigger understanding issues that need to be addressed. Many of the issues revolve around understanding how data are created, how are brought together, how the processes work and what data they need, use and generate. Moreover, few business and IT people look at the full lifecycle of data and try to optimize it, or they optimize it in the wrong direction. Data Management is supposed to help, and it does this occasionally, though a methodology, its processes and practices are as good as people’s understanding about data and its use! No matter how good a data methodology is, it’s as weak as the weakest link in its use, and typically the issues revolving around data and data understanding are the weakest link. 

Besides technical people, few businesspeople understand the full extent of managing data and its lifecycle. Unfortunately, even if some of the topics are treated in the books, they are too dry, need hands on experience and some thought in corroborating practices with theories. Without this, people will do things mechanically, processes being as good as the people using them, their value becoming suboptimal and hinder the business. That’s why training on Data Management is not enough without some hands-on experience!

The most important impact is however in BI/Data Analytics areas - how the various artifacts are created and used as support in decision-making, process optimization and other activities rooted in data. Ideally, some KPIs and other metrics should be enough for managing and directing a business, however just basing the decisions on a set of KPIs without understanding the bigger picture, without having a feeling of the data and their quality, the whole architecture, no matter how splendid, can breakdown as sandcastle on a shore meeting the first powerful wave!

Sometimes it feels like organizations do things from inertia, driven by the forces of the moment, initiatives and business issues for which temporary and later permanent solutions are needed. The best chance for solving many of the issues would have been a long time ago, when the issues were still small to create any powerful waves within the organizations. Therefore, a lot of effort is sometimes spent in solving the consequences of decisions not made at the right time, and that can be painful and costly!

For building a good business one needs also a solid foundation. In the past it was enough to have a good set of products that are profitable. However, during the past decade(s) the rules of the game changed driven by the acerb competition across geographies, inefficiencies, especially in the data and process areas, costing organizations on the short and long term. Data Management in general and Data Quality in particular, even if they’re challenging to quantify, have the power to address by design many of the issues existing in organizations, if given the right chance!

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🗄️Data Management: Data Governance (Part I: No Guild of Heroes)

Data Management Series

Data governance appeared around 1980s as topic though it gained popularity in early 2000s [1]. Twenty years later, organizations still miss the mark, respectively fail to understand and implement it in a consistent manner. As usual, the reasons for failure are multiple and they vary from misunderstanding what governance is all about to poor implementation of methodologies and inadequate management or leadership. 

Moreover, methodologies tend to idealize the various aspects and is not what organizations need, but pragmatism. For example, data governance is not about heroes and heroism [2], which can give the impression that heroic actions are involved and is not the case! Actions for the sake of action don’t necessarily lead to change by themselves. Organizations are in general good at creating meaningless action without results, especially when people preoccupy themselves, miss or ignore the mark. Big organizations are very good at generating actions without effects. 

People do talk to each other, though they try to solve their own problems and optimize their own areas without necessarily thinking about the bigger picture. The problem is not necessarily communication or the lack of depth into business issues, people do communicate, know the issues without a business impact assessment. The challenge is usually in convincing the upper management that the effort needs to be consolidated, supported, respectively the needed resources made available. 

Probably, one of the issues with data governance is the attempt of creating another structure in the organization focused on quality, which has the chances to fail, and unfortunately does fail. Many issues appear when the structure gains weight and it becomes a separate entity instead of being the backbone of organizations. 

As soon organizations separate the data governance from the key users, management and the other important decisional people in the organization, it takes a life of its own that has the chances to diverge from the initial construct. Then, organizations need "alignment" and probably other big words to coordinate the effort. Also such constructs can work but they are suboptimal because the forces will always pull in different directions.

Making each manager and the upper management responsible for governance is probably the way to go, though they’ll need the time for it. In theory, this can be achieved when many of the issues are solved at the lower level, when automation and further aspects allow them to supervise things, rather than hiding behind every issue. 

When too much mircomanagement is involved, people tend to busy themselves with topics rather than solve the issues they are confronted with. The actual actors need to be empowered to take decisions and optimize their work when needed. Kaizen, the philosophy of continuous improvement, proved itself that it works when applied correctly. They’ll need the knowledge, skills, time and support to do it though. One of the dangers is however that this becomes a full-time responsibility, which tends to create a separate entity again.

The challenge for organizations lies probably in the friction between where they are and what they must do to move forward toward the various objectives. Moving in small rapid steps is probably the way to go, though each person must be aware when something doesn’t work as expected and react. That’s probably the most important aspect. 

So, the more functions are created that diverge from the actual organization, the higher the chances for failure. Unfortunately, failure is visible in the later phases, and thus self-awareness, self-control and other similar “qualities” are needed, like small actors that keep the system in check and react whenever is needed. Ideally, the employees are the best resources to react whenever something doesn’t work as per design. 

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Resources:
[1] Wikipedia (2023) Data Management [link]
[2] Tiankai Feng (2023) How to Turn Your Data Team Into Governance Heroes [link]

🧭Business Intelligence: Perspectives (Part XV: From Data to Storytelling III)

Business Intelligence Series 

As children we heard or later read many stories, and even if few remained imprinted in memory, we can still recognize some of the metaphors and ideas used. Stories prepared us for life, and one can suppose that the business stories we hear nowadays have similar intent, charge and impact. However, if we dig deeper into each story and dissect it, we may be disappointed by its simplicity, the resemblance to other stories, to what we've heard over time. Moreover, stories can bring also negative connotations, that can impact any other story we hear. 

From the scores or hundreds of distinct stories that have been told, few reach a magnitude that can become more than the stories themselves, few become a catalyst for the auditorium, and even then they tend to manipulate. Conversely, well-written transformative stories can move mountains when they resonate with the auditorium. In a leader’s motivational speech such stories can become a catalyst that moves people in the intended direction.

Children stories are quite simple and apparently don’t need special constructs even if the choice of words, structure and messages is important. Moving further into organizations, storytelling becomes more complex, upon case, structures and messages need to follow certain conventions within some politically correct scripts. Facts become important to the degree they serve the story, though the purposes they serve change with time, becoming secondary to the story. Storytelling becomes thus just of way of changing the facts as seems fit to the storyteller. 

Storytelling has its role in organizations for channeling the multitude of messages across various structures. However, the more one hears the word storytelling, the more likely one is closer to fiction than to business decision-making. It's also true that the word in itself carries a power we all tasted during childhood and why not much later. The word has a magic power that appeals to our memories, to our feelings, to our expectations. However, as soon one's expectations are not met, the fight with the chimeras turns into a battle of our own. Yes, storytelling has great power when used right, when there's a story to tell, when the business narratives are worth telling. 

The problem with stories is that no matter how much they are based on real facts or happenings, they become fictitious in time, to the degree that they lose some of the most important facts they were based on. That’s valid especially when there’s no written track of the story, though even then various versions of the story can multiply outside of the standard channels and boundaries. 

Even if the author tried to keep the story as close to the facts, the way stories are understood, remembered and retold depend on too many factors - the words used, the degree to which metaphors and similar elements are understood, remembered and transmitted correctly, the language used, the mental structure existing in the auditorium, the association of words, ideas or metaphors, etc.

Unfortunately, the effect of stories can be negative too, especially when stories are designed to manipulate the auditorium beyond any ethical norms. When they don’t resonate with the crowd or are repeated unnecessary, the narratives may have adverse effects and the messages can get lost in the crowd or create resistance. Moreover, stories may have a multifold and opposite effect within different segments of the auditorium. 

Storytelling can make hearts and minds resonate with the carried messages, though misdirected, improper or poorly conceived stories have also the power to destroy all that have been built over the years. Between the two extremes there’s a small space to send the messages across!

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𖣯Strategic Management: Inflection Points and the Data Mesh (Quote of the Day)

Strategic Management Series

"Data mesh is what comes after an inflection point, shifting our approach, attitude, and technology toward data. Mathematically, an inflection point is a magic moment at which a curve stops bending one way and starts curving in the other direction. It’s a point that the old picture dissolves, giving way to a new one. [...] The impacts affect business agility, the ability to get value from data, and resilience to change. In the center is the inflection point, where we have a choice to make: to continue with our existing approach and, at best, reach a plateau of impact or take the data mesh approach with the promise of reaching new heights." [1]

I tried to understand the "metaphor" behind the quote. As the author through another quote pinpoints, the metaphor is borrowed from Andrew Groove:

"An inflection point occurs where the old strategic picture dissolves and gives way to the new, allowing the business to ascend to new heights. However, if you don’t navigate your way through an inflection point, you go through a peak and after the peak the business declines. [...] Put another way, a strategic inflection point is when the balance of forces shifts from the old structure, from the old ways of doing business and the old ways of competing, to the new. Before" [2]

The second part of the quote clarifies the role of the inflection point - the shift from a structure, respectively organization or system to a new one. The inflection point is not when we take a decision, but when the decision we took, and the impact shifts the balance. If the data mesh comes after the inflection point (see A), then there must be some kind of causality that converges uniquely toward the data mesh, which is questionable, if not illogical. A data mesh eventually makes sense after organizations reached a certain scale and thus is likely improbable to be adopted by small to medium businesses. Even for large organizations the data mesh may not be a viable solution if it doesn't have a proven record of success. 

I could understand if the author would have said that the data mesh will lead to an inflection point after its adoption, as is the case of transformative/disruptive technologies. Unfortunately, the tracking record of BI and Data Analytics projects doesn't give many hopes for such a magical moment to happen. Probably, becoming a data-driven organization could have such an effect, though for many organizations the effects are still far from expectations. 

There's another point to consider. A curve with inflection points can contain up and down concavities (see B) or there can be multiple curves passing through an inflection point (see C) and the continuation can be on any of the curves.

Examples of Inflection Points [3]

The change can be fast or slow (see D), and in the latter it may take a long time for change to be perceived. Also [2] notes that the perception that something changed can happen in stages. Moreover, the inflection point can be only local and doesn't describe the future evolution of the curve, which to say that the curve can change the trajectory shortly after that. It happens in business processes and policy implementations that after a change was made in extremis to alleviate an issue a slight improvement is recognized after which the performance decays sharply. It's the case of situations in which the symptoms and not the root causes were addressed. 

More appropriate to describe the change would be a tipping point, which can be defined as a critical threshold beyond which a system (the organization) reorganizes/changes, often abruptly and/or irreversible.

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References:
[1] Zhamak Dehghani (2021) Data Mesh: Delivering Data-Driven Value at Scale (book review)
[2] Andrew S Grove (1988) "Only the Paranoid Survive: How to Exploit the Crisis Points that Challenge Every Company and Career"
[3] SQL Troubles (2024) R Language: Drawing Function Plots (Part II - Basic Curves & Inflection Points) (link)

🧭Business Intelligence: A Software Engineer's Perspective (Part VII: Think for Yourself!)

Business Intelligence Series

After almost a quarter-century of professional experience the best advice I could give to younger professionals is to "gather information and think for themselves", and with this the reader can close the page and move forward! Anyway, everybody seems to be looking for sudden enlightenment with minimal effort, as if the effort has no meaning in the process!

In whatever endeavor you are caught, it makes sense to do upfront a bit of thinking for yourself - what's the task, or more general the problem, which are the main aspects and interpretations, which are the goals, respectively the objectives, how a solution might look like, respectively how can it be solved, how long it could take, etc. This exercise is important for familiarizing yourself with the problem and creating a skeleton on which you can build further. It can be just vague ideas or something more complex, though no matter the overall depth is important to do some thinking for yourself!

Then, you should do some research to identify how others approached and maybe solved the problem, what were the justifications, assumptions, heuristics, strategies, and other tools used in sense-making and problem solving. When doing research, one should not stop with the first answer and go with it. It makes sense to allocate a fair amount of time for information gathering, structuring the findings in a reusable way (e.g. tables, mind maps or other tools used for knowledge mapping), and looking at the problem from the multiple perspectives derived from them. It's important to gather several perspectives, otherwise the decisions have a high chance of being biased. Just because others preferred a certain approach, it doesn't mean one should follow it, at least not blindly!

The purpose of research is multifold. First, one should try not to reinvent the wheel. I know, it can be fun, and a lot can be learned in the process, though when time is an important commodity, it's important to be pragmatic! Secondly, new information can provide new perspectives - one can learn a lot from other people’s thinking. The pragmatism of problem solvers should be combined, when possible, with the idealism of theories. Thus, one can make connections between ideas that aren't connected at first sight.

Once a good share of facts was gathered, you can review the new information in respect to the previous ones and devise from there several approaches worthy of attack. Once the facts are reviewed, there are probably strong arguments made by others to follow one approach over the others. However, one can show that has reached a maturity when is able to evaluate the information and take a decision based on the respective information, even if the decision is not by far perfect.

One should try to develop a feeling for decision making, even if this seems to be more of a gut-feeling and stressful at times. When possible, one should attempt to collect and/or use data, though collecting data is often a luxury that tends to postpone the decision making, respectively be misused by people just to confirm their biases. Conversely, if there's any important benefit associated with it, one can collect data to validate in time one's decision, though that's a more of a scientist’s approach.

I know that's easier to go with the general opinion and do what others advise, especially when some ideas are popular and/or come from experts, though then would mean to also follow others' mistakes and biases. Occasionally, that can be acceptable, especially when the impact is neglectable, however each decision we are confronted with is an opportunity to learn something, to make a difference! 

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🧭Business Intelligence: Data Culture (Part I: Generative AI - No Silver Bullet)

Business Intelligence Series

Talking about holy grails in Data Analytics, another topic of major importance for an organization’s "infrastructure" is data culture, that can be defined as the collective beliefs, values, behaviors, and practices of an organization’s employees in harnessing the value of data for decision-making, operations, or insight. Rooted in data literacy, data culture is an extension of an organization’s culture in respect to data that acts as enabler in harnessing the value of data. It’s about thinking critically about data and how data is used to create value. 

The current topic was suggested by PowerBI.tips’s webcast from today [3] and is based on Brent Dykes’ article from Forbes ‘Why AI Isn’t Going to Solve All Your Data Culture Problems’ [1]. Dykes’ starting point for the discussion is Wavestone's annual data executive survey based on which the number of companies that reported they had "created a data-driven organization" rose sharply from 23.9 percent in 2023 to 48.1 percent in 2024 [2]. The report’s authors concluded that the result is driven by the adoption of Generative AI, the capabilities of OpenAI-like tools to generate context-dependent meaningful text, images, and other content in response to prompts. 

I agree with Dykes that AI technologies can’t be a silver bullet for an organization data culture given that AI either replaces people’s behaviors or augments existing ones, being thus a substitute and not a cure [1]. Even for a disruptive technology like Generative AI, it’s impossible to change so much employees’ mindset in a so short period of time. Typically, a data culture matures over years with sustained effort. Therefore, the argument that the increase is due to respondent’s false perception is more than plausible. There’s indeed a big difference between thinking about an organization as being data-driven and being data-driven. 

The three questions-based evaluation considered in the article addresses this difference, thinking vs. being. Changes in data culture don’t occur just because some people or metrics say so, but when people change their mental models based on data, when the interpersonal relations change, when the whole dynamics within the organization changes (positively). If people continue the same behavior and practices, then there are high chances that no change occurred besides the Brownian movement in a confined space of employees, that’s just chaotic motion.  

Indeed, a data culture should encourage the discovery, exploration, collaboration, discussions [1] respectively knowledge sharing and make people more receptive and responsive about environmental or circumstance changes. However, just involving leadership and having things prioritized and funded is not enough, no matter how powerful the drive. These can act as enablers, though more important is to awaken and guide people’s interest, working on people’s motivation and supporting the learning process through mentoring. No amount of brute force can make a mind move and evolve freely unless the mind is driven by an inborn curiosity!

Driving a self-driving car doesn’t make one a better driver. Technology should challenge people and expand their understanding of how data can be used in different contexts rather than give solutions based on a mass of texts available as input. This is how people grow meaningfully and how an organization’s culture expands. Readily available answers make people become dull and dependent on technology, which in the long-term can create more problems. Technology can solve problems when used creatively, when problems and their context are properly understood, and the solutions customized accordingly.

Unfortunately, for many organizations data culture will be just a topic to philosophy about. Data culture implies a change of mindset, perception, mental models, behavior, and practices based on data and not only consulting the data to confirm one’s biases on how the business operates!

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Resources:
[1] Forbes (2024) Why AI Isn’t Going To Solve All Your Data Culture Problems, by Brent Dykes (link)
[2] Wavestone (2024) 2024 Data and AI Leadership Executive Survey (link)
[3] Power BI tips (2024) Ep.299: AI & Data Culture Problems (link)

🧭Business Intelligence: A Software Engineer's Perspective (Part V: From Process Management to Mental Models in Knowledge Gaps)

Business Intelligence Series 

An organization's business processes are probably one of its most important assets because they reflect the business model, philosophy and culture, respectively link the material, financial, decisional, informational and communicational flows across the whole organization with implication in efficiency, productivity, consistency, quality, adaptability, agility, control or governance. A common practice in organizations is to document the business-critical processes and manage them accordingly over their lifetime, making sure that the employees understand and respect them, respectively improve them continuously. 

In what concerns the creation of data artifacts, data without the processual context are often meaningless, no matter how much a data professional knows about data structures/models. Processes allow to delimit the flow and boundaries of data, respectively delimit the essential from non-essential. Moreover, it's the knowledge of processes that allows to reengineer the logic behind systems especially when no proper documentation about the logic is available. 

Therefore, the existence of documented processes allows to bridge the knowledge gaps existing on the factual side, and occasionally also on the technical side. In theory, the processes should provide a complete overview of the procedures, rules, policies and responsibilities existing in the organization, respectively how the business operates. However, even if people tend to understand how the world works locally, when broken down into parts, their understanding is systemically flawed, missing the implications of causal relationships that span time with delays, feedback, variable confusion, chaotic behavior, and/or other characteristics borrowed from the vocabulary of complex systems.  

Jay W Forrester [3], Peter M Senge [1], John D Sterman [2] and several other systems-thinking theoreticians stressed the importance of mental models in making-sense about the world especially in setups that reflect the characteristics of complex systems. Mental models frame our experience about the world in congruent mental constructs that are further used to think, understand and navigate the world. They are however tacit, fuzzy, incomplete, imprecisely stated, inaccurate, evolving simplifications with dual character, enabling on one side, while impeding on the other side cognitive processes like sense-making, learning, thinking or decision-making, limiting the range of action to what is familiar and comfortable. 

On one side one of the primary goals of Data Analytics is to provide new insights, while on the other side the new insights fail to be recognized and put into practice because they conflict with existing mental models, limiting employees to familiar ways of thinking and acting. 

Externalizing and sharing mental models allow besides making assumptions explicit and creating a world view also to strategize, make tests and simulations, respectively make sure that the barriers and further constraints don't impact the decisional process. Sange goes further and advances that mental models, especially at management level, offer a competitive advantage, allowing to maintain coherence and direction, people becoming more perceptive and responsive about environmental or circumstance changes.

The whole process isn't about creating a unique congruent mental model, even if several mental models may converge toward one or more holistic models, but of providing different diverse perspectives and enabling people to make leaps in abstraction (by moving from direct observations to generalizations) while blending advocacy and inquiry to promote collaborative learning. Gradually, people and organizations should recognize a shift from mental models dominated by events to mental models that recognize longer-tern patterns of change and the underlying structures producing those patterns [1].

Probably, for many the concept of mental models seems to be still too abstract, respectively that the effort associated with it is unnecessary, or at least questionable on whether it can make a difference. Conversely, being aware of the positive and negative implications the mental models hold, can makes us explore, even if ad-hoc, the roads they open.

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Resources:
[1] Peter M Senge (1990) The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning Organization
[2] John D Sterman (2000) "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world"
[3] Jay W Forrester (1971) "Counterintuitive Behaviour of Social Systems", Technology Review

📊Graphical Representation: Overreaching in Data Visualizations

Graphical Representation Series 

One of the most important aspects to stress in the context of graphical design is the purpose of graphical representations and the medium in which they are communicated. For example, one needs to differentiate between the graphics propagated on the various media channels that target the public consumption and potential customers (books, newspapers, articles in paper or paperless form, respectively blog posts and similar content) and graphics made for organizational use (reports, dashboards or presentations).

If the former graphics are supposed to back up a story, the reader being led into one direction or another, the author having the freedom of choosing the direction and the message, in the latter, unless the content is supposed to support, persuade or force a decision, the facts and data need to be presented in an equidistant manner, in a form that support insights, decision making or further inference. This applies to data professionals as well to the business users preparing the data.

Data visualization authors tend to use the title and subtitle to highlight in reports and dashboards the most important findings as per their perception, sometimes even stating the obvious. One of the issues with this approach is that the audience might just pick up the respective information without further looking at the chart, missing maybe more important facts. Just highlighting an element in the graphic or providing explanatory headlines is not storytelling, even if it helps in the process. Ideally, the data itself as depicted by the visuals should tell the story! Further information with storytelling character should be provided in the presentation of the data and taylored accordingly for the audience!

With a few exceptions, the information and decisions shouldn't be forced on the audience. There are so many such examples on the various social networks in which data analysts or other types of data professionals seem to imply this in the content they share and this is so wrong on many levels!

No matter how deep a data professional is involved into the business and no matter how extensive is his/her knowledge about the systems, data and processes, the business user and the manager are the closest to the business context and needs, while data professionals might not be aware of the full extent. This lack of context makes it challenging to interpret the trends depicted by the data, respectively to associate the changes observed in trends with decisions made or issues the business dealt with. When such knowledge is not available the data professional tends to extrapolate instead of identifying the chain of causality together with the business (and here annotation capabilities would help considerably). 

Moreover, it falls on management's shoulders to decide which facts, data, metrics, KPIs and information are important for the organization. A data professional can make recommendations, can play with the data and communicate certain insights, gaps or courses of action, though the management decides what's important and how the respective information should be communicated! Overstepping the boundaries can easily lead to unnecessary conflict in which the data professional can easily lose, even if the facts are in his favor. It's enough to deal with missing or incorrect information for the whole story to fall apart. 

It's true that some of the books on graphical design use various highlighting techniques in the explanation process, but they are intended for the readers to understand what the authors want to say. Unfortunately, there are also examples improperly used or authors' opinion diverge from the common sense. Independently of this, the data professional should develop own visual critical thinking and validate the techniques used against own judgement! 

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🧮ERP: Panning (Part I: It’s all about Planning - An Introduction)

Ideally the total volume of work can be uniformly distributed for all project’s duration though in praxis the curve representing the effort has the form of a wave or aggregation of waves that tend to reach the peak shortly before or during the Go-Live(s). More important, higher fluctuations occur in the various areas of the project on whole project’s duration, as there are dependencies between the various functional areas, as one needs to wait for decisions to be made, people are not available, etc. Typically, the time wasted on waiting, researching or other non-value-added activities have the potential of leading to such peaks. Therefore, the knowledge must be available, and decisions must be taken when required, which can be challenging but not impossible to achieve. 

To bridge the time wasted on waiting, the team members need to work on other topics. If on customer’s side the resources can handle maybe other activities, on vendor’s side the costs can be high and proportional with the volume of waiting. Therefore, vendor’s resources must be involved at least in two projects or do work in other areas in advance, which is not always possible. However, when vendor’s resources are involved in two or more projects, unless the planning is perfect or each resource can handle the work as it comes, there are further waiting times added. The customer is then forced either to book the resources exclusively, or to wait and carry the costs associated with it. 

On the other side ERP Implementations tend to become exploration projects, especially when the team has only partial knowledge about the system, or the requirements have a certain degree of specialization that deviates from the standard processes. The more unknowns an ERP implementation has, the more difficult is to plan. To be able to plan one must know the activities ahead, how long they take, and of course, one must adhere to the delivery dates, because each delay can have a cascading effect that can impact project’s schedule considerably. 

Probably the best approach to planning is to group the activities into packages and plan the packages, being in each subteam’s duty to handle the planning for each package, following to manage at upper level only the open issues, risks or opportunities. This shifts the burden from Project Manager’s shoulders within the project. Moreover, even if in theory the plan can consider each activity, it will become obsolete as soon it’s updated given the considerable volume of work requested to maintain it. Periodically, one can still revise the whole plan to identify opportunities and risks. What the team can do is to plan for a certain time interval (e.g. 4-6 weeks) and build from there. This allows focusing on the most important activities. 

To further shift the burden, activities like Data Migration, Data Cleaning or the integrations with third party systems should be treated when possible as subprojects. Despite having interdependencies with the main project (e.g. parameters, master data, decisions) and share same resources, they have their own schedule whose deadlines need to be aligned with main project’s milestones. 

Unless the team and business put all effort to respect the plan and, as long the plan is realistic, the initial plan can seldom be respected – it’s anyway just a sketch of the road ahead that can change as the project progresses – and this aspect needs to be understood by the business otherwise will lead to false expectations. On the other side, the team must try respecting the deadlines and communicate in time inability to do so. It’s an interplay in which communication is more important than ever.

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Data Science: Data Strategy (Part I: Big Data vs. Business Strategies)

A strategy, independently on whether applied to organizations, chess, and other situations, allows identifying the moves having the most promising results from a range of possible moves that can change as one progresses into the game. Typically, the moves compete for same or similar resources, each move having at the respective time a potential value expressed in quantitative and/or qualitative terms, while the values are dependent on the information available about one’s and partners’ positions into the game. Therefore, a strategy is dependent on the decision-making processes in place, the information available about own business, respective the concurrence, as well about the game.

Big data is not about a technology but an umbrella term for multiple technologies that support in handling data with high volume, veracity, velocity or variety. The technologies attempt helping organizations in harnessing what is known as Big data (data having the before mentioned characteristics), for example by allowing answering to business questions, gaining insight into the business or market, improving decision-making. Through this Big data helps delivering value to businesses, at least in theory.

Big-data technologies can harness all data of an organization though this doesn’t imply that all data can provide value, especially when considered in respect to the investments made. Data bring value when they have the potential of uncovering hidden trends or (special) patterns of behavior, when they can be associated in new meaningful ways. Data that don’t reflect such characteristics are less susceptible of bringing value for an organization no matter how much one tries to process the respective data. However, looking at the data through multiple techniques can help organization get a better understanding of the data, though here is more about the processes of attempting understanding the data than the potential associated directly with the data.

Through active effort in understanding the data one becomes aware of the impact the quality of data have on business decisions, on how the business and processes are reflected in its data, how data can be used to control processes and focus on what matters. These are aspects that can be corroborated with the use of simple BI capabilities and don’t necessarily require more complex capabilities or tools. Therefore allowing employees the time to analyze and play with the data, can in theory have a considerable impact on how data are harnessed within an organization.

If an organization’s decision-making processes is dependent on actual data and insight (e.g. stock market) then the organization is more likely to profit from it. In opposition, organizations whose decision-making processes hand handle hours, days or months of latency in their data, then more likely the technologies will bring little value. Probably can be found similar examples for veracity, variety or similar characteristics consider under Big data.

The Big data technologies can make a difference especially when the extreme aspects of their characteristics can be harnessed. One talks about potential use which is different than the actual use. The use of technologies doesn’t equate with results, as knowledge about the tools and the business is mandatory to harness the respective tools. For example, insight doesn’t necessarily imply improved decision-making because it relies on people’s understanding about the business, about the numbers and models used.

That’s maybe one of the reasons why organization fail in deriving value from Big data. It’s great that companies invest in their Big data, Analytics/BI infrastructures, though without working actively in integrating the new insights/knowledge and upgrading people’s skillset, the effects will be under expectations. Investing in employees’ skillset is maybe one of the important decisions an organization can make as part of its strategy.

Note:
Written as answer to a Medium post on Big data and business strategies. 

💻IT: Automation (Definitions)

"The act of replacing control of a manual process with computer or electronic controls." (DAMA International, "The DAMA Dictionary of Data Management", 2011)

[soft automation:] "automation that is configurable through software without requiring changes to the underlying code of the software itself." (Meredith Zozus, "The Data Book: Collection and Management of Research Data", 2017)

[hard automation:] "automation that requires computer programming to be altered if changes are required." (Meredith Zozus, "The Data Book: Collection and Management of Research Data", 2017)

[Decision Automation:] "This broad term refers to computerized systems that make decisions and have some capability to independently act upon them. Decision automation refers to using technologies, including computer processing, to make decisions and implement programmed decision processes." (Ciara Heavin & Daniel J Power, "Decision Support, Analytics, and Business Intelligence" 3rd Ed., 2017)

"Automation is machine-controlled execution of actions, based on artificial intelligence and machine learning that do not require human intervention. It enables speed to action to help reduce time taken by human operators." (Heru Susanto et al, "Data Security for Connected Governments and Organisations: Managing Automation and Artificial Intelligence", 2021)

"refers to the technology where procedures or processes are performed with minimal human intervention. Machines can be configured based on an explicit set of rules or algorithms." (Accenture)

"performing all or part of a set of tasks with a machine rather than through human effort (NRC 1998)

[Intelligent Automation:] "refers to an automation solution that is enhanced with cognitive capabilities that enable programs and machines to learn, interpret and respond." (Accenture)

🤝Governance: Authority (Just the Quotes)

"When the general is weak and without authority; when his orders are not clear and distinct; when there are no fixed duties assigned to officers and men, and the ranks are formed in a slovenly haphazard manner, the result is utter disorganization." (Sun Tzu, "The Art of War", cca. 5th century)

"Authority is never without hate." (Euripides, "Ion", cca. 422 BC)

"In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual" (Galileo Galilei, 1632)

"Authority without wisdom is like a heavy axe without an edge, fitter to bruise than polish." (Anne Bradstreet, "Meditations Divine and Moral", 1664)

"Lawful and settled authority is very seldom resisted when it is well employed." (Samuel Johnson, "The Rambler", 1750)

"The most absolute authority is that which penetrates into a man's innermost being and concerns itself no less with his will than with his actions." (Jean-Jacques Rousseau, "On the origin of inequality", 1755)

"The wise executive never looks upon organizational lines as being settled once and for all. He knows that a vital organization must keep growing and changing with the result that its structure must remain malleable. Get the best organization structure you can devise, but do not be afraid to change it for good reason: This seems to be the sound rule. On the other hand, beware of needless change, which will only result in upsetting and frustrating your employees until they become uncertain as to what their lines of authority actually are." (Marshall E Dimock, "The Executive in Action", 1915)

"No amount of learning from books or of listening to the words of authority can be substituted for the spade-work of investigation." (Richard Gregory, "Discovery; or, The Spirit and Service of Science", 1916)

"In organization it means the graduation of duties, not according to differentiated functions, for this involves another and distinct principle of organization, but simply according to degrees of authority and corresponding responsibility." (James D Mooney, "Onward Industry!", 1931)

"It is sufficient here to observe that the supreme coordinating authority must be anterior to leadership in logical order, for it is this coordinating force which makes the organization. Leadership, on the other hand, always presupposes the organization. There can be no leader without something to lead." (James D Mooney, "Onward Industry!", 1931)

"Leadership is the form that authority assumes when it enters into process. As such it constitutes the determining principle of the entire scalar process, existing not only at the source, but projecting itself through its own action throughout the entire chain, until, through functional definition, it effectuates the formal coordination of the entire structure." (James D Mooney, "Onward Industry!", 1931)

"The staff function in organization means the service of advice or counsel, as distinguished from the function of authority or command. This service has three phases, which appear in a clearly integrated relationship. These phases are the informative, the advisory, and the supervisory." (James D Mooney, "Onward Industry!", 1931)

"Human beings are compounded of cognition and emotion and do not function well when treated as though they were merely cogs in motion.... The task of the administrator must be accomplished less by coercion and discipline, and more and more by persuasion.... Management of the future must look more to leadership and less to authority as the primary means of coordination." (Luther H Gulick, "Papers on the Science of Administration", 1937)

"A person can and will accept a communication as authoritative only when four conditions simultaneously obtain: (a) he can and does understand the communication; (b) at the time of his decision he believes that it is not inconsistent with the purpose of the organization; (c) at the time of his decision, he believes it to be compatible with his personal interest as a whole; and (d) he is able mentally and physically to comply with it." (Chester I Barnard, "The Functions of the Executive", 1938)

"The fine art of executive decision consists in not deciding questions that are not now pertinent, in not deciding prematurely, in not making decision that cannot be made effective, and in not making decisions that others should make. Not to decide questions that are not pertinent at the time is uncommon good sense, though to raise them may be uncommon perspicacity. Not to decide questions prematurely is to refuse commitment of attitude or the development of prejudice. Not to make decisions that cannot be made effective is to refrain from destroying authority. Not to make decisions that others should make is to preserve morale, to develop competence, to fix responsibility, and to preserve authority.
From this it may be seen that decisions fall into two major classes, positive decisions - to do something, to direct action, to cease action, to prevent action; and negative decisions, which are decisions not to decide. Both are inescapable; but the negative decisions are often largely unconscious, relatively nonlogical, "instinctive," "good sense." It is because of the rejections that the selection is good." (Chester I Barnard, "The Functions of the Executive", 1938)

"To hold a group or individual accountable for activities of any kind without assigning to him or them the necessary authority to discharge that responsibility is manifestly both unsatisfactory and inequitable. It is of great Importance to smooth working that at all levels authority and responsibility should be coterminous and coequal." (Lyndall Urwick, "Dynamic Administration", 1942)

"All behavior involves conscious or unconscious selection of particular actions out of all those which are physically possible to the actor and to those persons over whom he exercises influence and authority." (Herbert A Simon, "Administrative Behavior: A Study of Decision-making Processes in Administrative Organization", 1947)

"Coordination, therefore, is the orderly arrangement of group efforts, to provide unity of action in the pursuit of a common purpose. As coordination is the all inclusive principle of organization it must have its own principle and foundation in authority, or the supreme coordination power. Always, in every form of organization, this supreme authority must rest somewhere, else there would be no directive for any coordinated effort." (James D Mooney, "The Principles of Organization", 1947)

"Delegation means the conferring of a specified authority by a higher authority. In its essence it involves a dual responsibility. The one to whom responsibility is delegated becomes responsible to the superior for doing the job. but the superior remains responsible for getting the Job done. This principle of delegation is the center of all processes in formal organization. Delegation is inherent in the very nature of the relation between superior and subordinate. The moment the objective calls for the organized effort of more than one person, there is always leadership with its delegation of duties." (James D Mooney, "The Principles of Organization", 1947)

"Power on the one side, fear on the other, are always the buttresses on which irrational authority is built." (Erich Fromm, "Man for Himself: An Inquiry Into the Psychology of Ethics", 1947)

"Authority is not a quality one person 'has', in the sense that he has property or physical qualities. Authority refers to an interpersonal relation in which one person looks upon another as somebody superior to him." (Erich Fromm, "The Fear of Freedom", 1950)

"The only way for a large organization to function is to decentralize, to delegate real authority and responsibility to the man on the job. But be certain you have the right man on the job." (Robert E Wood, 1951)

"[...] authority - the right by which superiors are able to require conformity of subordinates to decisions - is the basis for responsibility and the force that binds organization together. The process of organizing encompasses grouping of activities for purposes of management and specification of authority relationships between superiors and subordinates and horizontally between managers. Consequently, authority and responsibility relationships come into being in all associative undertakings where the superior-subordinate link exists. It is these relationships that create the basic character of the managerial job." (Harold Koontz & Cyril O Donnell, "Principles of Management", 1955)

"Although organization charts are useful, necessary, and often revealing tools, they are subject to many important limitations. In the first place, a chart shows only formal authority relationships and omits the many significant informal and informational relationships that exist in a living organization. Moreover, it does not picture how much authority exists at any point in the organization." (Harold Koontz & Cyril O Donnell, "Principles of Management", 1955)

"[...] authority for given tasks is limited to that for which an individual may properly held responsible." (Harold Koontz & Cyril O Donnell, "Principles of Management", 1955)

"Authority delegations from a superior to a subordinate may be made in large or small degree. The tendency to delegate much authority through the echelons of an organization structure is referred tojas decentralization of authority. On the other hand, authority is said to be centralized wherever a manager tends not to delegate authority to his subordinates." (Harold Koontz & Cyril O Donnell, "Principles of Management", 1955)

"Authority is, of course, completely centralized when a manager delegates none, and it is possible to think of the reverse situation - an infinite delegation of authority in which no manager retains any authority other than the implicit power to recover delegated authority. But this kind of delegation is obviously impracticable, since, at some point in the organization structure, delegations must stop." (Harold Koontz & Cyril O Donnell, "Principles of Management", 1955)

"If charts do not reflect actual organization and if the organization is intended to be as charted, it is the job of effective management to see that actual organization conforms with that desired. Organization charts cannot supplant good organizing, nor can a chart take the place of spelling out authority relationships clearly and completely, of outlining duties of managers and their subordinates, and of defining responsibilities." (Harold Koontz & Cyril O Donnell, "Principles of Management", 1955)

"It is highly important for managers to be honest and clear in describing what authority they are keeping and what role they are asking their subordinates to assume." (Robert Tannenbaum & Warren H Schmidt, Harvard Business Review, 1958)

"Formal theories of organization have been taught in management courses for many years, and there is an extensive literature on the subject. The textbook principles of organization — hierarchical structure, authority, unity of command, task specialization, division of staff and line, span of control, equality of responsibility and authority, etc. - comprise a logically persuasive set of assumptions which have had a profound influence upon managerial behavior." (Douglas McGregor, 'The Human Side of Enterprise", 1960)

"If there is a single assumption which pervades conventional organizational theory, it is that authority is the central, indispensable means of managerial control." (Douglas McGregor, "The Human Side of Enterprise", 1960)

"The ingenuity of the average worker is sufficient to outwit any system of controls devised by management." (Douglas McGregor, "The Human Side of Enterprise", 1960)

"You can delegate authority, but you can never delegate responsibility by delegating a task to someone else. If you picked the right man, fine, but if you picked the wrong man, the responsibility is yours - not his." (Richard E Krafve, The Boston Sunday Globe, 1960)

"Centralized controls are designed to ensure that the chief executive can find out how well the delegated authority and responsibility are being exercised." (Ernest Dale, "Management: Theory and practice", 1965)

"In large-scale organizations, the factual approach must be constantly nurtured by high-level executives. The more layers of authority through which facts must pass before they reach the decision maker, the greater the danger that they will be suppressed, modified, or softened, so as not to displease the 'brass"' For this reason, high-level executives must keep reaching for facts or soon they won't know what is going on. Unless they make visible efforts to seek and act on facts, major problems will not be brought to their attention, the quality of their decisions will decline, and the business will gradually get out of touch with its environment." (Marvin Bower, "The Will to Manage", 1966)

"The concept of organizational goals, like the concepts of power, authority, or leadership, has been unusually resistant to precise, unambiguous definition. Yet a definition of goals is necessary and unavoidable in organizational analysis. Organizations are established to do something; they perform work directed toward some end." (Charles Perrow, "Organizational Analysis: A Sociological View", 1970)

"[Management] has authority only as long as it performs." (Peter F Drucker, "Management: Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices", 1973)

"'Management' means, in the last analysis, the substitution of thought for brawn and muscle, of knowledge for folkways and superstition, and of cooperation for force. It means the substitution of responsibility for obedience to rank, and of authority of performance for authority of rank. (Peter F Drucker, "People and Performance", 1977)

"The key to successful leadership today is influence, not authority." (Kenneth H Blanchard, "Managing By Influence", 1986)

"Strange as it sounds, great leaders gain authority by giving it away." (James B Stockdale, "Military Ethics" 1987)

"Perhaps nothing in our society is more needed for those in positions of authority than accountability." (Larry Burkett, "Business By The Book: Complete Guide of Biblical Principles for the Workplace", 1990)

"When everything is connected to everything in a distributed network, everything happens at once. When everything happens at once, wide and fast moving problems simply route around any central authority. Therefore overall governance must arise from the most humble interdependent acts done locally in parallel, and not from a central command. " (Kevin Kelly, "Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems and the Economic World", 1995)

"Authority alone is like pushing from behind. What automatic reaction do you have when pushed from behind? Resistance - unless you are travelling in that direction anyway and you experience the push as helpful. When you do not know what lies ahead and you are not sure whether you want to move forward, resistance is completely understandable. [...] Authority alone pushes. Leadership pulls, because it draws people towards a vision of the future that attracts them." (Joseph O’Connor, "Leading With NLP: Essential Leadership Skills for Influencing and Managing People", 1998)

"Authority works best where you have an accepted hierarchy [...]. Then people move together because of the strong implicit accepted values that everyone shares. If you are trying to lead people who do not share similar goals and values, then authority is not enough." (Joseph O’Connor, "Leading With NLP: Essential Leadership Skills for Influencing and Managing People", 1998)

"The ultimate authority must always rest with the individual's own reason and critical analysis." (Tenzin Gyatso, "Path To Tranquility", 1998)

"The premise here is that the hierarchy lines on the chart are also the only communication conduit. Information can flow only along the lines. [...] The hierarchy lines are paths of authority. When communication happens only over the hierarchy lines, that's a priori evidence that the managers are trying to hold on to all control. This is not only inefficient but an insult to the people underneath." (Tom DeMarco, "Slack: Getting Past Burnout, Busywork, and the Myth of Total Efficiency", 2001)

"A system is a framework that orders and sequences activity within the organisation to achieve a purpose within a band of variance that is acceptable to the owner of the system.  Systems are the organisational equivalent of behaviour in human interaction. Systems are the means by which organisations put policies into action.  It is the owner of a system who has the authority to change it, hence his or her clear acceptance of the degree of variation generated by the existing system." (Catherine Burke et al, "Systems Leadership" 2nd Ed., 2018)

"Responsibility means an inevitable punishment for mistakes; authority means full power to make them." (Yegor Bugayenko, "Code Ahead", 2018)

"Control is not leadership; management is not leadership; leadership is leadership. If you seek to lead, invest at least 50% of your time in leading yourself–your own purpose, ethics, principles, motivation, conduct. Invest at least 20% leading those with authority over you and 15% leading your peers." (Dee Hock)

"Delegation of authority is one of the most important functions of a leader, and he should delegate authority to the maximum degree possible with regard to the capabilities of his people. Once he has established policy, goals, and priorities, the leader accomplishes his objectives by pushing authority right down to the bottom. Doing so trains people to use their initiative; not doing so stifles creativity and lowers morale." (Thornas H Moorer)

"Leadership means that a group, large or small, is willing to entrust authority to a person who has shown judgement, wisdom, personal appeal, and proven competence." (Walt Disney)

"The teams and staffs through which the modern commander absorbs information and exercises his authority must be a beautifully interlocked, smooth-working mechanism. Ideally, the whole should be practically a single mind." (Dwight D Eisenhower)

"While basic laws underlie command authority, the real foundation of successful leadership is the moral authority derived from professional competence and integrity. Competence and integrity are not separable." (William C Westmoreland)

🔭Data Science: Statistics' (Mis)usage (Just the Quotes)

"A witty statesman said, you might prove anything by figures." (Thomas Carlyle, Chartism, 1840)

"It is difficult to understand why statisticians commonly limit their inquiries to Averages, and do not revel in more comprehensive views. Their souls seem as dull to the charm of variety as that of the native of one of our flat English counties, whose retrospect of Switzerland was that, if its mountains could be thrown into its lakes, two nuisances would be got rid of at once. An Average is but a solitary fact, whereas if a single other fact be added to it, an entire Normal Scheme, which nearly corresponds to the observed one, starts potentially into existence." (Sir Francis Galton, "Natural Inheritance", 1889)

"No doubt statistics can be easily misinterpreted; and are often very misleading when first applied to new problems. But many of the worst fallacies involved in the misapplications of statistics are definite and can be definitely exposed, till at last no one ventures to repeat them even when addressing an uninstructed audience: and on the whole arguments which can be reduced to statistical forms, though still in a backward condition, are making more sure and more rapid advances than any others towards obtaining the general acceptance of all who have studied the subjects to which they refer." (Alfred Marshall, "Principles of Economics", 1890)

"A statistical estimate may be good or bad, accurate or the reverse; but in almost all cases it is likely to be more accurate than a casual observer’s impression, and the nature of things can only be disproved by statistical methods." (Sir Arthur L Bowley, "Elements of Statistics", 1901)

"Some of the common ways of producing a false statistical argument are to quote figures without their context, omitting the cautions as to their incompleteness, or to apply them to a group of phenomena quite different to that to which they in reality relate; to take these estimates referring to only part of a group as complete; to enumerate the events favorable to an argument, omitting the other side; and to argue hastily from effect to cause, this last error being the one most often fathered on to statistics. For all these elementary mistakes in logic, statistics is held responsible." (Sir Arthur L Bowley, "Elements of Statistics", 1901)

"Statistics may, for instance, be called the science of counting. Counting appears at first sight to be a very simple operation, which any one can perform or which can be done automatically; but, as a matter of fact, when we come to large numbers, e.g., the population of the United Kingdom, counting is by no means easy, or within the power of an individual; limits of time and place alone prevent it being so carried out, and in no way can absolute accuracy be obtained when the numbers surpass certain limits." (Sir Arthur L Bowley, "Elements of Statistics", 1901)

"Figures may not lie, but statistics compiled unscientifically and analyzed incompetently are almost sure to be misleading, and when this condition is unnecessarily chronic the so-called statisticians may be called liars." (Edwin B Wilson, "Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society", Vol 18, 1912)

"Great discoveries which give a new direction to currents of thoughts and research are not, as a rule, gained by the accumulation of vast quantities of figures and statistics. These are apt to stifle and asphyxiate and they usually follow rather than precede discovery. The great discoveries are due to the eruption of genius into a closely related field, and the transfer of the precious knowledge there found to his own domain." (Theobald Smith, Boston Medical and Surgical Journal Volume 172, 1915)

"Of itself an arithmetic average is more likely to conceal than to disclose important facts; it is the nature of an abbreviation, and is often an excuse for laziness." (Arthur L Bowley, "The Nature and Purpose of the Measurement of Social Phenomena", 1915)

"Averages are like the economic man; they are inventions, not real. When applied to salaries they hide gaunt poverty at the lower end." (Julia Lathrop, 1919)

"A method is a dangerous thing unless its underlying philosophy is understood, and none more dangerous than the statistical. […] Over-attention to technique may actually blind one to the dangers that lurk about on every side- like the gambler who ruins himself with his system carefully elaborated to beat the game. In the long run it is only clear thinking, experienced methods, that win the strongholds of science." (Edwin B Wilson, "The Statistical Significance of Experimental Data", Science, Volume 58 (1493), 1923)

"[…] the methods of statistics are so variable and uncertain, so apt to be influenced by circumstances, that it is never possible to be sure that one is operating with figures of equal weight." (Havelock Ellis, "The Dance of Life", 1923)

"No human mind is capable of grasping in its entirety the meaning of any considerable quantity of numerical data." (Sir Ronald A Fisher, "Statistical Methods for Research Workers", 1925)

"The preliminary examination of most data is facilitated by the use of diagrams. Diagrams prove nothing, but bring outstanding features readily to the eye; they are therefore no substitutes for such critical tests as may be applied to the data, but are valuable in suggesting such tests, and in explaining the conclusions founded upon them." (Sir Ronald A Fisher, "Statistical Methods for Research Workers", 1925)

"Without an adequate understanding of the statistical methods, the investigator in the social sciences may be like the blind man groping in a dark room for a black cat that is not there. The methods of Statistics are useful in an over-widening range of human activities in any field of thought in which numerical data may be had." (Frederick E Croxton & Dudley J Cowden, "Practical Business Statistics", 1937)

"In earlier times they had no statistics and so they had to fall back on lies. Hence the huge exaggerations of primitive literature, giants, miracles, wonders! It's the size that counts. They did it with lies and we do it with statistics: but it's all the same." (Stephen Leacock, "Model memoirs and other sketches from simple to serious", 1939)

"It has long been recognized by public men of all kinds […] that statistics come under the head of lying, and that no lie is so false or inconclusive as that which is based on statistics." (Hilaire Belloc, "The Silence of the Sea", 1940)

"The enthusiastic use of statistics to prove one side of a case is not open to criticism providing the work is honestly and accurately done, and providing the conclusions are not broader than indicated by the data. This type of work must not be confused with the unfair and dishonest use of both accurate and inaccurate data, which too commonly occurs in business. Dishonest statistical work usually takes the form of: (1) deliberate misinterpretation of data; (2) intentional making of overestimates or underestimates; and (3) biasing results by using partial data, making biased surveys, or using wrong statistical methods." (John R Riggleman & Ira N Frisbee, "Business Statistics", 1951)

"By the laws of statistics we could probably approximate just how unlikely it is that it would happen. But people forget - especially those who ought to know better, such as yourself - that while the laws of statistics tell you how unlikely a particular coincidence is, they state just as firmly that coincidences do happen." (Robert A Heinlein, "The Door Into Summer", 1957)

"The statistics themselves prove nothing; nor are they at any time a substitute for logical thinking. There are […] many simple but not always obvious snags in the data to contend with. Variations in even the simplest of figures may conceal a compound of influences which have to be taken into account before any conclusions are drawn from the data." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"Many people use statistics as a drunkard uses a street lamp - for support rather than illumination. It is not enough to avoid outright falsehood; one must be on the alert to detect possible distortion of truth. One can hardly pick up a newspaper without seeing some sensational headline based on scanty or doubtful data." (Anna C Rogers, "Graphic Charts Handbook", 1961)

"Myth is more individual and expresses life more precisely than does science. Science works with concepts of averages which are far too general to do justice to the subjective variety of an individual life." (Carl G Jung, "Memories, Dreams, Reflections", 1963)

"It has been said that data collection is like garbage collection: before you collect it you should have in mind what you are going to do with it." (Russell Fox et al, "The Science of Science", 1964)

"[…] statistical techniques are tools of thought, and not substitutes for thought." (Abraham Kaplan, "The Conduct of Inquiry", 1964)

"He who accepts statistics indiscriminately will often be duped unnecessarily. But he who distrusts statistics indiscriminately will often be ignorant unnecessarily. There is an accessible alternative between blind gullibility and blind distrust. It is possible to interpret statistics skillfully. The art of interpretation need not be monopolized by statisticians, though, of course, technical statistical knowledge helps. Many important ideas of technical statistics can be conveyed to the non-statistician without distortion or dilution. Statistical interpretation depends not only on statistical ideas but also on ordinary clear thinking. Clear thinking is not only indispensable in interpreting statistics but is often sufficient even in the absence of specific statistical knowledge. For the statistician not only death and taxes but also statistical fallacies are unavoidable. With skill, common sense, patience and above all objectivity, their frequency can be reduced and their effects minimised. But eternal vigilance is the price of freedom from serious statistical blunders." (W Allen Wallis & Harry V Roberts, "The Nature of Statistics", 1965)

"The manipulation of statistical formulas is no substitute for knowing what one is doing." (Hubert M Blalock Jr., "Social Statistics" 2nd Ed., 1972)

"Confidence in the omnicompetence of statistical reasoning grows by what it feeds on." (Harry Hopkins, "The Numbers Game: The Bland Totalitarianism", 1973)

"Probably one of the most common misuses (intentional or otherwise) of a graph is the choice of the wrong scale - wrong, that is, from the standpoint of accurate representation of the facts. Even though not deliberate, selection of a scale that magnifies or reduces - even distorts - the appearance of a curve can mislead the viewer." (Peter H Selby, "Interpreting Graphs and Tables", 1976)

"No matter how much reverence is paid to anything purporting to be ‘statistics’, the term has no meaning unless the source, relevance, and truth are all checked." (Tom Burnam, "The Dictionary of Misinformation", 1975)

"Crude measurement usually yields misleading, even erroneous conclusions no matter how sophisticated a technique is used." (Henry T Reynolds, "Analysis of Nominal Data", 1977)

"Graphs are used to meet the need to condense all the available information into a more usable quantity. The selection process of combining and condensing will inevitably produce a less than complete study and will lead the user in certain directions, producing a potential for misleading." (Anker V Andersen, "Graphing Financial Information: How accountants can use graphs to communicate", 1983)

"It is all too easy to notice the statistical sea that supports our thoughts and actions. If that sea loses its buoyancy, it may take a long time to regain the lost support." (William Kruskal, "Coordination Today: A Disaster or a Disgrace", The American Statistician, Vol. 37, No. 3, 1983)

"There are two kinds of misrepresentation. In one. the numerical data do not agree with the data in the graph, or certain relevant data are omitted. This kind of misleading presentation. while perhaps hard to determine, clearly is wrong and can be avoided. In the second kind of misrepresentation, the meaning of the data is different to the preparer and to the user." (Anker V Andersen, "Graphing Financial Information: How accountants can use graphs to communicate", 1983)

"’Common sense’ is not common but needs to [be] learnt systematically […]. A ‘simple analysis’ can be harder than it looks […]. All statistical techniques, however sophisticated, should be subordinate to subjective judgment." (Christopher Chatfield, "The Initial Examination of Data", Journal of The Royal Statistical Society, Series A, Vol. 148, 1985)

"The combination of some data and an aching desire for an answer does not ensure that a reasonable answer can be extracted from a given body of data." (John Tukey, The American Statistician, 40 (1), 1986)

"Beware of the problem of testing too many hypotheses; the more you torture the data, the more likely they are to confess, but confessions obtained under duress may not be admissible in the court of scientific opinion." (Stephen M. Stigler, "Neutral Models in Biology", 1987)

"[In statistics] you have the fact that the concepts are not very clean. The idea of probability, of randomness, is not a clean mathematical idea. You cannot produce random numbers mathematically. They can only be produced by things like tossing dice or spinning a roulette wheel. With a formula, any formula, the number you get would be predictable and therefore not random. So as a statistician you have to rely on some conception of a world where things happen in some way at random, a conception which mathematicians don’t have." (Lucien LeCam, [interview] 1988)

"Torture numbers, and they will confess to anything." (Gregg Easterbrook, "New Republic", 1989)

"Statistics is a very powerful and persuasive mathematical tool. People put a lot of faith in printed numbers. It seems when a situation is described by assigning it a numerical value, the validity of the report increases in the mind of the viewer. It is the statistician's obligation to be aware that data in the eyes of the uninformed or poor data in the eyes of the naive viewer can be as deceptive as any falsehoods." (Theoni Pappas, "More Joy of Mathematics: Exploring mathematical insights & concepts", 1991)

"When looking at the end result of any statistical analysis, one must be very cautious not to over interpret the data. Care must be taken to know the size of the sample, and to be certain the method for gathering information is consistent with other samples gathered. […] No one should ever base conclusions without knowing the size of the sample and how random a sample it was. But all too often such data is not mentioned when the statistics are given - perhaps it is overlooked or even intentionally omitted." (Theoni Pappas, "More Joy of Mathematics: Exploring mathematical insights & concepts", 1991)

"[…] an honest exploratory study should indicate how many comparisons were made […] most experts agree that large numbers of comparisons will produce apparently statistically significant findings that are actually due to chance. The data torturer will act as if every positive result confirmed a major hypothesis. The honest investigator will limit the study to focused questions, all of which make biologic sense. The cautious reader should look at the number of ‘significant’ results in the context of how many comparisons were made." (James L Mills, "Data torturing", New England Journal of Medicine, 1993)

"Fairy tales lie just as much as statistics do, but sometimes you can find a grain of truth in them." (Sergei Lukyanenko, "The Night Watch", 1998)

"Averages, ranges, and histograms all obscure the time-order for the data. If the time-order for the data shows some sort of definite pattern, then the obscuring of this pattern by the use of averages, ranges, or histograms can mislead the user. Since all data occur in time, virtually all data will have a time-order. In some cases this time-order is the essential context which must be preserved in the presentation." (Donald J Wheeler," Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos" 2nd Ed., 2000)

"No comparison between two values can be global. A simple comparison between the current figure and some previous value and convey the behavior of any time series. […] While it is simple and easy to compare one number with another number, such comparisons are limited and weak. They are limited because of the amount of data used, and they are weak because both of the numbers are subject to the variation that is inevitably present in weak world data. Since both the current value and the earlier value are subject to this variation, it will always be difficult to determine just how much of the difference between the values is due to variation in the numbers, and how much, if any, of the difference is due to real changes in the process." (Donald J Wheeler, "Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos" 2nd Ed., 2000)

"Without meaningful data there can be no meaningful analysis. The interpretation of any data set must be based upon the context of those data. Unfortunately, much of the data reported to executives today are aggregated and summed over so many different operating units and processes that they cannot be said to have any context except a historical one - they were all collected during the same time period. While this may be rational with monetary figures, it can be devastating to other types of data." (Donald J Wheeler, "Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos" 2nd Ed., 2000)

"Since the average is a measure of location, it is common to use averages to compare two data sets. The set with the greater average is thought to ‘exceed’ the other set. While such comparisons may be helpful, they must be used with caution. After all, for any given data set, most of the values will not be equal to the average." (Donald J Wheeler, "Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos" 2nd Ed., 2000)

"Innumeracy - widespread confusion about basic mathematical ideas - means that many statistical claims about social problems don't get the critical attention they deserve. This is not simply because an innumerate public is being manipulated by advocates who cynically promote inaccurate statistics. Often, statistics about social problems originate with sincere, well-meaning people who are themselves innumerate; they may not grasp the full implications of what they are saying. Similarly, the media are not immune to innumeracy; reporters commonly repeat the figures their sources give them without bothering to think critically about them." (Joel Best, "Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists", 2001)

"Not all statistics start out bad, but any statistic can be made worse. Numbers - even good numbers - can be misunderstood or misinterpreted. Their meanings can be stretched, twisted, distorted, or mangled. These alterations create what we can call mutant statistics - distorted versions of the original figures." (Joel Best, "Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists", 2001)

"The ease with which somewhat complex statistics can produce confusion is important, because we live in a world in which complex numbers are becoming more common. Simple statistical ideas - fractions, percentages, rates - are reasonably well understood by many people. But many social problems involve complex chains of cause and effect that can be understood only through complicated models developed by experts. [...] environment has an influence. Sorting out the interconnected causes of these problems requires relatively complicated statistical ideas - net additions, odds ratios, and the like. If we have an imperfect understanding of these ideas, and if the reporters and other people who relay the statistics to us share our confusion - and they probably do - the chances are good that we'll soon be hearing - and repeating, and perhaps making decisions on the basis of - mutated statistics." (Joel Best, "Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists", 2001)

"While some social problems statistics are deliberate deceptions, many - probably the great majority - of bad statistics are the result of confusion, incompetence, innumeracy, or selective, self-righteous efforts to produce numbers that reaffirm principles and interests that their advocates consider just and right. The best response to stat wars is not to try and guess who's lying or, worse, simply to assume that the people we disagree with are the ones telling lies. Rather, we need to watch for the standard causes of bad statistics - guessing, questionable definitions or methods, mutant numbers, and inappropriate comparisons." (Joel Best, "Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists", 2001)

"This is true only if you torture the statistics until they produce the confession you want." (Larry Schweikart, "Myths of the 1980s Distort Debate over Tax Cuts", 2001) [source]

"Every number has its limitations; every number is a product of choices that inevitably involve compromise. Statistics are intended to help us summarize, to get an overview of part of the world’s complexity. But some information is always sacrificed in the process of choosing what will be counted and how. Something is, in short, always missing. In evaluating statistics, we should not forget what has been lost, if only because this helps us understand what we still have." (Joel Best, "More Damned Lies and Statistics: How numbers confuse public issues", 2004)

"In short, some numbers are missing from discussions of social issues because certain phenomena are hard to quantify, and any effort to assign numeric values to them is subject to debate. But refusing to somehow incorporate these factors into our calculations creates its own hazards. The best solution is to acknowledge the difficulties we encounter in measuring these phenomena, debate openly, and weigh the options as best we can." (Joel Best, "More Damned Lies and Statistics : How numbers confuse public issues", 2004)

"Another way to obscure the truth is to hide it with relative numbers. […] Relative scales are always given as percentages or proportions. An increase or decrease of a given percentage only tells us part of the story, however. We are missing the anchoring of absolute values." (Brian Suda, "A Practical Guide to Designing with Data", 2010)

"A sin of omission – leaving something out – is a strong one and not always recognized; itʼs hard to ask for something you donʼt know is missing. When looking into the data, even before it is graphed and charted, there is potential for abuse. Simply not having all the data or the correct data before telling your story can cause problems and unhappy endings." (Brian Suda, "A Practical Guide to Designing with Data", 2010)

"The omission of zero magnifies the ups and downs in the data, allowing us to detect changes that might otherwise be ambiguous. However, once zero has been omitted, the graph is no longer an accurate guide to the magnitude of the changes. Instead, we need to look at the actual numbers." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

"The search for better numbers, like the quest for new technologies to improve our lives, is certainly worthwhile. But the belief that a few simple numbers, a few basic averages, can capture the multifaceted nature of national and global economic systems is a myth. Rather than seeking new simple numbers to replace our old simple numbers, we need to tap into both the power of our information age and our ability to construct our own maps of the world to answer the questions we need answering." (Zachary Karabell, "The Leading Indicators: A short history of the numbers that rule our world", 2014)

"Even properly done statistics can’t be trusted. The plethora of available statistical techniques and analyses grants researchers an enormous amount of freedom when analyzing their data, and it is trivially easy to ‘torture the data until it confesses’." (Alex Reinhart, "Statistics Done Wrong: The Woefully Complete Guide", 2015)

"GIGO is a famous saying coined by early computer scientists: garbage in, garbage out. At the time, people would blindly put their trust into anything a computer output indicated because the output had the illusion of precision and certainty. If a statistic is composed of a series of poorly defined measures, guesses, misunderstandings, oversimplifications, mismeasurements, or flawed estimates, the resulting conclusion will be flawed." (Daniel J Levitin, "Weaponized Lies", 2017)

"Most of us have difficulty figuring probabilities and statistics in our heads and detecting subtle patterns in complex tables of numbers. We prefer vivid pictures, images, and stories. When making decisions, we tend to overweight such images and stories, compared to statistical information. We also tend to misunderstand or misinterpret graphics." (Daniel J Levitin, "Weaponized Lies", 2017)

"If we don’t understand the statistics, we’re likely to be badly mistaken about the way the world is. It is all too easy to convince ourselves that whatever we’ve seen with our own eyes is the whole truth; it isn’t. Understanding causation is tough even with good statistics, but hopeless without them. [...] And yet, if we understand only the statistics, we understand little. We need to be curious about the world that we see, hear, touch, and smell, as well as the world we can examine through a spreadsheet." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"Do not put faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say." (William W Watt)

"Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all." (Charles Babbage)

"Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable." (Mark Twain)

"I can prove anything by statistics except the truth." (George Canning

"If the statistics are boring, you've got the wrong numbers." (Edward Tufte)

"If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment." (Ernest Rutherford)

"It is easy to lie with statistics. It is hard to tell the truth without it." (Andrejs Dunkels)