"A good estimator will be unbiased and will converge more and more closely (in the long run) on the true value as the sample size increases. Such estimators are known as consistent. But consistency is not all we can ask of an estimator. In estimating the central tendency of a distribution, we are not confined to using the arithmetic mean; we might just as well use the median. Given a choice of possible estimators, all consistent in the sense just defined, we can see whether there is anything which recommends the choice of one rather than another. The thing which at once suggests itself is the sampling variance of the different estimators, since an estimator with a small sampling variance will be less likely to differ from the true value by a large amount than an estimator whose sampling variance is large." (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"A piece of self-deception - often dear to the heart of apprentice scientists - is the drawing of a 'smooth curve' (how attractive it sounds!) through a set of points which have about as much trend as the currants in plum duff. Once this is done, the mind, looking for order amidst chaos, follows the Jack-o'-lantern line with scant attention to the protesting shouts of the actual points. Nor, let it be whispered, is it unknown for people who should know better to rub off the offending points and publish the trend line which their foolish imagination has introduced on the flimsiest of evidence. Allied to this sin is that of overconfident extrapolation, i.e. extending the graph by guesswork beyond the range of factual information. Whenever extrapolation is attempted it should be carefully distinguished from the rest of the graph, e.g. by showing the extrapolation as a dotted line in contrast to the full line of the rest of the graph. [...] Extrapolation always calls for justification, sooner or later. Until this justification is forthcoming, it remains a provisional estimate, based on guesswork." (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"Data should be collected with a clear purpose in mind. Not only a clear purpose, but a clear idea as to the precise way in which they will be analysed so as to yield the desired information." (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"For the most part, Statistics is a method of investigation that is used when other methods are of no avail; it is often a last resort and a forlorn hope. A statistical analysis, properly conducted, is a delicate dissection of uncertainties, a surgery of suppositions. The surgeon must guard carefully against false incisions with his scalpel. Very often he has to sew up the patient as inoperable. The public knows too little about the statistician as a conscientious and skilled servant of true science." (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"It is really questionable - though bordering on heresy to put the question - whether we would be any the worse off if the whole bag of tricks were scrapped. So many of these index numbers are so ancient and so out of date, so out of touch with reality, so completely devoid of practical value when they have been computed, that their regular calculation must be regarded as a widespread compulsion neurosis. Only lunatics and public servants with no other choice go on doing silly things and liking it." (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"It pays to keep wide awake in studying any graph. The thing looks so simple, so frank, and so appealing that the careless are easily fooled. [...] Data and formulae should be given along with the graph, so that the interested reader may look at the details if he wishes." (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"It will, of course, happen but rarely that the proportions will be identical, even if no real association exists. Evidently, therefore, we need a significance test to reassure ourselves that the observed difference of proportion is greater than could reasonably be attributed to chance. The significance test will test the reality of the association, without telling us anything about the intensity of association. It will be apparent that we need two distinct things: (a) a test of significance, to be used on the data first of all, and (b) some measure of the intensity of the association, which we shall only be justified in using if the significance test confirms that the association is real." (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"Some distributions [...] are symmetrical about their central value. Other distributions have marked asymmetry and are said to be skew. Skew distributions are divided into two types. If the 'tail' of the distribution reaches out into the larger values of the variate, the distribution is said to show positive skewness; if the tail extends towards the smaller values of the variate, the distribution is called negatively skew." (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"The economists, of course, have great fun - and show remarkable skill - in inventing more refined index numbers. Sometimes they use geometric averages instead of arithmetic averages (the advantage here being that the geometric average is less upset by extreme oscillations in individual items), sometimes they use the harmonic average. But these are all refinements of the basic idea of the index number [...]" (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"The mode would form a very poor basis for any further
calculations of an arithmetical nature, for it has deliberately excluded
arithmetical precision in the interests of presenting a typical result. The
arithmetic average, on the other hand, excellent as it is for numerical
purposes, has sacrificed its desire to be typical in favour of numerical
accuracy. In such a case it is often desirable to quote both measures of
central tendency."
"The statistician’s job is to draw general conclusions from fragmentary data. Too often the data supplied to him for analysis are not only fragmentary but positively incoherent, so that he can do next to nothing with them. Even the most kindly statistician swears heartily under his breath whenever this happens". (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"Undoubtedly one of the most elegant, powerful, and useful techniques in modern statistical method is that of the Analysis of Variation and Co-variation by which the total variation in a set of data may be reduced to components associated with possible sources of variability whose relative importance we wish to assess. The precise form which any given analysis will take is intimately connected with the structure of the investigation from which the data are obtained. A simple structure will lead to a simple analysis; a complex structure to a complex analysis." (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
"When the mathematician speaks of the existence of a 'functional relation' between two variable quantities, he means that they are connected by a simple 'formula that is to say, if we are told the value of one of the variable quantities we can find the value of the second quantity by substituting in the formula which tells us how they are related. [...] The thing to be clear about before we proceed further is that a functional relationship in mathematics means an exact and predictable relationship, with no ifs or buts about lt. It is useful in practice so long as the ifs and buts are only tiny voices which even the most ardent protagonist of proportional representation can ignore with a clear conscience." (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1951)
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