"Every economic and social situation or problem is now described in statistical terms, and we feel that it is such statistics which give us the real basis of fact for understanding and analysing problems and difficulties, and for suggesting remedies. In the main we use such statistics or figures without any elaborate theoretical analysis; little beyond totals, simple averages and perhaps index numbers. Figures have become the language in which we describe our economy or particular parts of it, and the language in which we argue about policy." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"Indeed the language of statistics is rarely as objective as we imagine. The way statistics are presented, their arrangement in a particular way in tables, the juxtaposition of sets of figures, in itself reflects the judgment of the author about what is significant and what is trivial in the situation which the statistics portray." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"It might be reasonable to expect that the more we know about any set of statistics, the greater the confidence we would have in using them, since we would know in which directions they were defective; and that the less we know about a set of figures, the more timid and hesitant we would be in using them. But, in fact, it is the exact opposite which is normally the case; in this field, as in many others, knowledge leads to caution and hesitation, it is ignorance that gives confidence and boldness. For knowledge about any set of statistics reveals the possibility of error at every stage of the statistical process; the difficulty of getting complete coverage in the returns, the difficulty of framing answers precisely and unequivocally, doubts about the reliability of the answers, arbitrary decisions about classification, the roughness of some of the estimates that are made before publishing the final results. Knowledge of all this, and much else, in detail, about any set of figures makes one hesitant and cautious, perhaps even timid, in using them." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"The art of using the language of figures correctly is not to be over-impressed by the apparent air of accuracy, and yet to be able to take account of error and inaccuracy in such a way as to know when, and when not, to use the figures. This is a matter of skill, judgment, and experience, and there are no rules and short cuts in acquiring this expertness." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"The knowledge that the economist uses in analysing economic problems and in giving advice on them is of thre First, theories of how the economic system works (and why it sometimes does not work so well); second, commonsense maxims about reasonable economic behaviour; and third, knowledge of the facts describing the main features of the economy, many of these facts being statistical." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"The general models, even of the most elaborate kind, serve the simple purpose of demonstrating the interconnectedness of all economic phenomena, and show how, under certain conditions, price may act as a guiding link between them. Looked at in another way such models show how a complex set of interrelations can hang together consistently without any central administrative direction." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"The most important and frequently stressed prescription for avoiding pitfalls in the use of economic statistics, is that one should find out before using any set of published statistics, how they have been collected, analysed and tabulated. This is especially important, as you know, when the statistics arise not from a special statistical enquiry, but are a by-product of law or administration. Only in this way can one be sure of discovering what exactly it is that the figures measure, avoid comparing the non-comparable, take account of changes in definition and coverage, and as a consequence not be misled into mistaken interpretations and analysis of the events which the statistics portray." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"The two most important characteristics of the language of statistics are first, that it describes things in quantitative terms, and second, that it gives this description an air of accuracy and precision. The limitations, as well as the advantages, of the statistical approach arise from these two characteristics. For a description of the quantitative aspect of events never gives us the whole story; and even the best statistics are never, and never can be, completely accurate and precise. To avoid misuse of the language we must, therefore, guard against exaggerating the importance of the elements in any situation that can be described quantitatively, and we must know sufficient about the error and inaccuracy of the figures to be able to use them with discretion." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"There are, indeed, plenty of ways in which statistics can help in the process of decision-taking. But exaggerated claims for the role they can play merely serve to confuse rather than clarify issues of public policy, and lead those responsible for action to oscillate between over-confidence and over-scepticism in using them." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"There is a demand for every issue of economic policy to be discussed in terms of statistics, and even those who profess a general distrust of statistics are usually more impressed by an argument in support of a particular policy if it is backed up by figures. There is a passionate desire in our society to see issues of economic policy decided on what we think are rational grounds. We rebel against any admission of the uncertainty of our knowledge of the future as a confession of weakness." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"There seems to be striking similarities between the role of economic statistics in our society and some of the functions which magic and divination play in primitive society." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"This exaggerated influence of statistics resulting from willingness, indeed eagerness, to be impressed by the 'hard facts' provided by the 'figures', may play an important role in decision-making." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
"We all know that in economic statistics particularly, true precision, comparability and accuracy is extremely difficult to achieve, and it is for this reason that the language of economic statistics is so difficult to handle." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961)
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