14 December 2018

Data Science: Coincidence (Just the Quotes)

"It is no great wonder if in long process of time, while fortune takes her course hither and thither, numerous coincidences should spontaneously occur. If the number and variety of subjects to be wrought upon be infinite, it is all the more easy for fortune, with such an abundance of material, to effect this similarity of results." (Plutarch, Life of Sertorius, 1st century BC)

"Coincidences, in general, are great stumbling blocks in the way of that class of thinkers who have been educated to know nothing of the theory of probabilities - that theory to which the most glorious objects of human research are indebted for the most glorious of illustrations." (Edgar A Poe, "The Murders in the Rue Morgue", 1841)

"Nothing is more certain in scientific method than that approximate coincidence alone can be expected. In the measurement of continuous quantity perfect correspondence must be accidental, and should give rise to suspicion rather than to satisfaction." (William S Jevons, "The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method", 1874)

"Before we can completely explain a phenomenon we require not only to find its true cause, its chief relations to other causes, and all the conditions which determine how the cause operates, and what its effect and amount of effect are, but also all the coincidences." (George Gore, "The Art of Scientific Discovery", 1878)

"As science progress, it becomes more and more difficult to fit in the new facts when they will not fit in spontaneously. The older theories depend upon the coincidences of so many numerical results which can not be attributed to chance. We should not separate what has been joined together." (Henri Poincaré, "The Ether and Matter", 1912)

"By the laws of statistics we could probably approximate just how unlikely it is that it would happen. But people forget - especially those who ought to know better, such as yourself - that while the laws of statistics tell you how unlikely a particular coincidence is, they state just as firmly that coincidences do happen." (Robert A Heinlein, "The Door Into Summer", 1957)

"There is no coherent knowledge, i.e. no uniform comprehensive account of the world and the events in it. There is no comprehensive truth that goes beyond an enumeration of details, but there are many pieces of information, obtained in different ways from different sources and collected for the benefit of the curious. The best way of presenting such knowledge is the list - and the oldest scientific works were indeed lists of facts, parts, coincidences, problems in several specialized domains." (Paul K Feyerabend, "Farewell to Reason", 1987)

"A tendency to drastically underestimate the frequency of coincidences is a prime characteristic of innumerates, who generally accord great significance to correspondences of all sorts while attributing too little significance to quite conclusive but less flashy statistical evidence." (John A Paulos, "Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and its Consequences", 1988)

"The law of truly large numbers states: With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen." (Frederick Mosteller, "Methods for Studying Coincidences", Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 84, 1989)

"Most coincidences are simply chance events that turn out to be far more probable than many people imagine." (Ivars Peterson, "The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari", 1997)

"Often, we use the word random loosely to describe something that is disordered, irregular, patternless, or unpredictable. We link it with chance, probability, luck, and coincidence. However, when we examine what we mean by random in various contexts, ambiguities and uncertainties inevitably arise. Tackling the subtleties of randomness allows us to go to the root of what we can understand of the universe we inhabit and helps us to define the limits of what we can know with certainty." (Ivars Peterson, "The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari", 1998)

"Coincidence surprises us because our intuition about the likelihood of an event is often wildly inaccurate." (Michael Starbird, "Coincidences, Chaos, and All That Math Jazz", 2005)

"With our heads spinning in the world of coincidence and chaos, we nevertheless must make decisions and take steps into the minefield of our future. To avoid explosive missteps, we rely on data and statistical reasoning to inform our thinking." (Michael Starbird, "Coincidences, Chaos, and All That Math Jazz", 2005)

"The human mind delights in finding pattern - so much so that we often mistake coincidence or forced analogy for profound meaning. No other habit of thought lies so deeply within the soul of a small creature trying to make sense of a complex world not constructed for it." (Stephen J Gould, "The Flamingo's Smile: Reflections in Natural History", 2010)

More quotes on "Coincidence" at the-web-of-knowledge.blogspot.com.

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