Paul Gibbons - Collected Quotes

"According to the traditional distinction from economics, risk is measurable, whereas uncertainty is indefinite or incalculable. In truth, risk can never be measured precisely except in dice rolls and games of chance, called a priori probability. Risk can only be estimated from observations in the real world, but to do that, we need to take a sample, and estimate the underlying distribution. In a sense, our estimates of real-world volatility are themselves volatile. Failure to realize this fundamental untidiness of the real world is called the ludic fallacy from the Latin for games. […] However, when the term risk measurement is used as opposed to risk estimation, a degree of precision is suggested that is unrealistic, and the choice of language suggests that we know more than we do. Even the language '​​​​​​risk management'​​​​​​ implies we can do more than we can." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)

"Because the perfect system cannot be designed, there will always be weak spots that human ingenuity and resourcefulness can exploit." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)

"Change strategy is, by this definition, the way a business (1) manages the portfolio of change to make sure that the parts deliver the whole business strategy, (2) creates the context for change, and (3) monitors change risk and change performance across the entire business." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)

"Culture is an emergent phenomenon produced by structures, practices, leadership behavior, incentives, symbols, rituals, and processes. All those levers have to be pulled to have any chance of success. However, one driver of culture change is more important than the others. Culture change fails when the most visible symbols of it fail to change. Those key symbols are almost always the top leader’​​​​​​s behavior, which speaks much louder than anything they might say." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)

"One way of managing complexity is to constrain the freedom of the parts: to hold some of those nonlinear interactions still. Businesses accomplish this with tight rules, processes, hierarchies, policies, and rigid strategies. Gathering people together under a corporate roof reduces complexity by constraining individual autonomy. The upside, of course, is collaboration, alignment of goals, and faster exchange of information." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)

"Our minds, especially our intuitions, are not equipped to deal with a probabilistic world. Risk and prediction are widely misunderstood, […] All decision making in a probabilistic world involves estimating the likelihood of an event and how much we will value it (affective forecasting). Humans are bad at both - ​​​​​ particularly at the former. […] In business, understanding the psychology of risk is more important than understanding the mathematics of risk." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)

"Strategic coherence is more important than strategic precision in an uncertain world. It is impossible to get everything right because of market volatility, but we can ensure strategies do not collide. In large, complex organizations where many executives are empowered to launch major change, strategic incoherence can be a big problem." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)

"Strategy that takes no account of tactical practicalities is doomed, and great tactics without strategy produce incoherence and nonalignment. Despite this, the strategy-tactics dialogue happens too rarely in organizations." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)

"The more complex the system, the more variable (risky) the outcomes. The profound implications of this essential feature of reality still elude us in all the practical disciplines. Sometimes variance averages out, but more often fat-tail events beget more fat-tail events because of interdependencies. If there are multiple projects running, outlier (fat-tail) events may also be positively correlated - one IT project falling behind will stretch resources and increase the likelihood that others will be compromised." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)

"The planning fallacy is the systematic tendency for project plans and budgets to undershoot. […] The reasons for the planning fallacy are partly psychological, partly cultural, and partly to do with our limited ability to think probabilistically." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)

"What is commonly called change strategy is not very strategic because strategy properly focuses on goals and not on how to deliver those goals." (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change",  2015)