"[Executives] make decisions based on delusional optimism rather than on a rational weighting of gains, losses, and probabilities. They overestimate benefits and underestimate costs. They spin scenarios of success while overlooking the potential for mistakes and miscalculations. As a result, they pursue initiatives that are unlikely to come in on budget or on time or to deliver the expected returns - or even to be completed." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events."
"When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"The illusion of control deludes leaders into banking on a single outcome in situations that are highly risk dependent." (Daniel Kahneman)
No comments:
Post a Comment