30 December 2018

Data Science: Data Analysis (Just the Quotes)

"As in Mathematics, so in Natural Philosophy, the Investigation of difficult Things by the Method of Analysis, ought ever to precede the Method of Composition. This Analysis consists in making Experiments and Observations, and in drawing general Conclusions from them by Induction, and admitting of no Objections against the Conclusions but such as are taken from Experiments, or other certain Truths." (Sir Isaac Newton, "Opticks", 1704)

"The errors which arise from the absence of facts are far more numerous and more durable than those which result from unsound reasoning respecting true data." (Charles Babbage, "On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures", 1832)

"In every branch of knowledge the progress is proportional to the amount of facts on which to build, and therefore to the facility of obtaining data." (James C Maxwell, [letter to Lewis Campbell] 1851)

"Not even the most subtle and skilled analysis can overcome completely the unreliability of basic data." (Roy D G Allen, "Statistics for Economists", 1951)

"The technical analysis of any large collection of data is a task for a highly trained and expensive man who knows the mathematical theory of statistics inside and out. Otherwise the outcome is likely to be a collection of drawings - quartered pies, cute little battleships, and tapering rows of sturdy soldiers in diversified uniforms - interesting enough in the colored Sunday supplement, but hardly the sort of thing from which to draw reliable inferences." (Eric T Bell, "Mathematics: Queen and Servant of Science", 1951)

"If data analysis is to be well done, much of it must be a matter of judgment, and ‘theory’ whether statistical or non-statistical, will have to guide, not command." (John W Tukey, "The Future of Data Analysis", Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 33 (1), 1962)

"The most important maxim for data analysis to heed, and one which many statisticians seem to have shunned is this: ‘Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise.’ Data analysis must progress by approximate answers, at best, since its knowledge of what the problem really is will at best be approximate." (John W Tukey, "The Future of Data Analysis", Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 33, No. 1, 1962)

"The first step in data analysis is often an omnibus step. We dare not expect otherwise, but we equally dare not forget that this step, and that step, and other step, are all omnibus steps and that we owe the users of such techniques a deep and important obligation to develop ways, often varied and competitive, of replacing omnibus procedures by ones that are more sharply focused." (John W Tukey, "The Future of Processes of Data Analysis", 1965)

"The basic general intent of data analysis is simply stated: to seek through a body of data for interesting relationships and information and to exhibit the results in such a way as to make them recognizable to the data analyzer and recordable for posterity. Its creative task is to be productively descriptive, with as much attention as possible to previous knowledge, and thus to contribute to the mysterious process called insight." (John W Tukey & Martin B Wilk, "Data Analysis and Statistics: An Expository Overview", 1966)

"Comparable objectives in data analysis are (l) to achieve more specific description of what is loosely known or suspected; (2) to find unanticipated aspects in the data, and to suggest unthought-of-models for the data's summarization and exposure; (3) to employ the data to assess the (always incomplete) adequacy of a contemplated model; (4) to provide both incentives and guidance for further analysis of the data; and (5) to keep the investigator usefully stimulated while he absorbs the feeling of his data and considers what to do next." (John W Tukey & Martin B Wilk, "Data Analysis and Statistics: An Expository Overview", 1966)

"Data analysis must be iterative to be effective. [...] The iterative and interactive interplay of summarizing by fit and exposing by residuals is vital to effective data analysis. Summarizing and exposing are complementary and pervasive." (John W Tukey & Martin B Wilk, "Data Analysis and Statistics: An Expository Overview", 1966)

"Every student of the art of data analysis repeatedly needs to build upon his previous statistical knowledge and to reform that foundation through fresh insights and emphasis." (John W Tukey, "Data Analysis, Including Statistics", 1968)

"[...] bending the question to fit the analysis is to be shunned at all costs." (John W Tukey, "Analyzing Data: Sanctification or Detective Work?", 1969)

"Statistical methods are tools of scientific investigation. Scientific investigation is a controlled learning process in which various aspects of a problem are illuminated as the study proceeds. It can be thought of as a major iteration within which secondary iterations occur. The major iteration is that in which a tentative conjecture suggests an experiment, appropriate analysis of the data so generated leads to a modified conjecture, and this in turn leads to a new experiment, and so on." (George E P Box & George C Tjao, "Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis", 1973)

"Almost all efforts at data analysis seek, at some point, to generalize the results and extend the reach of the conclusions beyond a particular set of data. The inferential leap may be from past experiences to future ones, from a sample of a population to the whole population, or from a narrow range of a variable to a wider range. The real difficulty is in deciding when the extrapolation beyond the range of the variables is warranted and when it is merely naive. As usual, it is largely a matter of substantive judgment - or, as it is sometimes more delicately put, a matter of 'a priori nonstatistical considerations'." (Edward R Tufte, "Data Analysis for Politics and Policy", 1974)

"[…] it is not enough to say: 'There's error in the data and therefore the study must be terribly dubious'. A good critic and data analyst must do more: he or she must also show how the error in the measurement or the analysis affects the inferences made on the basis of that data and analysis." (Edward R Tufte, "Data Analysis for Politics and Policy", 1974)

"The use of statistical methods to analyze data does not make a study any more 'scientific', 'rigorous', or 'objective'. The purpose of quantitative analysis is not to sanctify a set of findings. Unfortunately, some studies, in the words of one critic, 'use statistics as a drunk uses a street lamp, for support rather than illumination'. Quantitative techniques will be more likely to illuminate if the data analyst is guided in methodological choices by a substantive understanding of the problem he or she is trying to learn about. Good procedures in data analysis involve techniques that help to (a) answer the substantive questions at hand, (b) squeeze all the relevant information out of the data, and (c) learn something new about the world." (Edward R Tufte, "Data Analysis for Politics and Policy", 1974)

"Typically, data analysis is messy, and little details clutter it. Not only confounding factors, but also deviant cases, minor problems in measurement, and ambiguous results lead to frustration and discouragement, so that more data are collected than analyzed. Neglecting or hiding the messy details of the data reduces the researcher's chances of discovering something new." (Edward R Tufte, "Data Analysis for Politics and Policy", 1974)

"[...] be wary of analysts that try to quantify the unquantifiable." (Ralph Keeney & Raiffa Howard, "Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-offs", 1976)

"[...] exploratory data analysis is an attitude, a state of flexibility, a willingness to look for those things that we believe are not there, as well as for those we believe might be there. Except for its emphasis on graphs, its tools are secondary to its purpose." (John W Tukey, [comment] 1979)

"[...] any hope that we are smart enough to find even transiently optimum solutions to our data analysis problems is doomed to failure, and, indeed, if taken seriously, will mislead us in the allocation of effort, thus wasting both intellectual and computational effort." (John W Tukey, "Choosing Techniques for the Analysis of Data", 1981)

"The fact must be expressed as data, but there is a problem in that the correct data is difficult to catch. So that I always say 'When you see the data, doubt it!' 'When you see the measurement instrument, doubt it!' [...]For example, if the methods such as sampling, measurement, testing and chemical analysis methods were incorrect, data. […] to measure true characteristics and in an unavoidable case, using statistical sensory test and express them as data." (Kaoru Ishikawa, Annual Quality Congress Transactions, 1981)

"Exploratory data analysis, EDA, calls for a relatively free hand in exploring the data, together with dual obligations: (•) to look for all plausible alternatives and oddities - and a few implausible ones, (graphic techniques can be most helpful here) and (•) to remove each appearance that seems large enough to be meaningful - ordinarily by some form of fitting, adjustment, or standardization [...] so that what remains, the residuals, can be examined for further appearances." (John W Tukey, "Introduction to Styles of Data Analysis Techniques", 1982)

"Data in isolation are meaningless, a collection of numbers. Only in context of a theory do they assume significance […]" (George Greenstein, "Frozen Star", 1983)

"Iteration and experimentation are important for all of data analysis, including graphical data display. In many cases when we make a graph it is immediately clear that some aspect is inadequate and we regraph the data. In many other cases we make a graph, and all is well, but we get an idea for studying the data in a different way with a different graph; one successful graph often suggests another." (William S Cleveland, "The Elements of Graphing Data", 1985)

"There are some who argue that a graph is a success only if the important information in the data can be seen within a few seconds. While there is a place for rapidly-understood graphs, it is too limiting to make speed a requirement in science and technology, where the use of graphs ranges from, detailed, in-depth data analysis to quick presentation." (William S Cleveland, "The Elements of Graphing Data", 1985)

"A first analysis of experimental results should, I believe, invariably be conducted using flexible data analytical techniques - looking at graphs and simple statistics - that so far as possible allow the data to 'speak for themselves'. The unexpected phenomena that such a approach often uncovers can be of the greatest importance in shaping and sometimes redirecting the course of an ongoing investigation." (George Box, "Signal to Noise Ratios, Performance Criteria, and Transformations", Technometrics 30, 1988)

"[…] data analysis in the context of basic mathematical concepts and skills. The ability to use and interpret simple graphical and numerical descriptions of data is the foundation of numeracy […] Meaningful data aid in replacing an emphasis on calculation by the exercise of judgement and a stress on interpreting and communicating results." (David S Moore, "Statistics for All: Why, What and How?", 1990)

"Data analysis is rarely as simple in practice as it appears in books. Like other statistical techniques, regression rests on certain assumptions and may produce unrealistic results if those assumptions are false. Furthermore it is not always obvious how to translate a research question into a regression model." (Lawrence C Hamilton, "Regression with Graphics: A second course in applied statistics", 1991)

"Data analysis typically begins with straight-line models because they are simplest, not because we believe reality is inherently linear. Theory or data may suggest otherwise [...]" (Lawrence C Hamilton, "Regression with Graphics: A second course in applied statistics", 1991)

"90 percent of all problems can be solved by using the techniques of data stratification, histograms, and control charts. Among the causes of nonconformance, only one-fifth or less are attributable to the workers." (Kaoru Ishikawa, The Quality Management Journal Vol. 1, 1993)

"Probabilistic inference is the classical paradigm for data analysis in science and technology. It rests on a foundation of randomness; variation in data is ascribed to a random process in which nature generates data according to a probability distribution. This leads to a codification of uncertainly by confidence intervals and hypothesis tests." (William S Cleveland, "Visualizing Data", 1993)

"Visualization is an approach to data analysis that stresses a penetrating look at the structure of data. No other approach conveys as much information. […] Conclusions spring from data when this information is combined with the prior knowledge of the subject under investigation." (William S Cleveland, "Visualizing Data", 1993)

"When the distributions of two or more groups of univariate data are skewed, it is common to have the spread increase monotonically with location. This behavior is monotone spread. Strictly speaking, monotone spread includes the case where the spread decreases monotonically with location, but such a decrease is much less common for raw data. Monotone spread, as with skewness, adds to the difficulty of data analysis. For example, it means that we cannot fit just location estimates to produce homogeneous residuals; we must fit spread estimates as well. Furthermore, the distributions cannot be compared by a number of standard methods of probabilistic inference that are based on an assumption of equal spreads; the standard t-test is one example. Fortunately, remedies for skewness can cure monotone spread as well." (William S Cleveland, "Visualizing Data", 1993)

"Science is not impressed with a conglomeration of data. It likes carefully constructed analysis of each problem." (Daniel E Koshland Jr, Science Vol. 263 (5144), [editorial] 1994)

"So we pour in data from the past to fuel the decision-making mechanisms created by our models, be they linear or nonlinear. But therein lies the logician's trap: past data from real life constitute a sequence of events rather than a set of independent observations, which is what the laws of probability demand. [...] It is in those outliers and imperfections that the wildness lurks." (Peter L Bernstein, "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk", 1996)

"Data are generally collected as a basis for action. However, unless potential signals are separated from probable noise, the actions taken may be totally inconsistent with the data. Thus, the proper use of data requires that you have simple and effective methods of analysis which will properly separate potential signals from probable noise." (Donald J Wheeler, "Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos" 2nd Ed., 2000)

"No matter what the data, and no matter how the values are arranged and presented, you must always use some method of analysis to come up with an interpretation of the data.
While every data set contains noise, some data sets may contain signals. Therefore, before you can detect a signal within any given data set, you must first filter out the noise." (Donald J Wheeler," Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos" 2nd Ed., 2000)

"The purpose of analysis is insight. The best analysis is the simplest analysis which provides the needed insight." (Donald J Wheeler, "Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos" 2nd Ed., 2000)

"Without meaningful data there can be no meaningful analysis. The interpretation of any data set must be based upon the context of those data." (Donald J Wheeler, "Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos" 2nd Ed., 2000)

"Exploratory Data Analysis is more than just a collection of data-analysis techniques; it provides a philosophy of how to dissect a data set. It stresses the power of visualisation and aspects such as what to look for, how to look for it and how to interpret the information it contains. Most EDA techniques are graphical in nature, because the main aim of EDA is to explore data in an open-minded way. Using graphics, rather than calculations, keeps open possibilities of spotting interesting patterns or anomalies that would not be apparent with a calculation (where assumptions and decisions about the nature of the data tend to be made in advance)." (Alan Graham, "Developing Thinking in Statistics", 2006)

"It is the aim of all data analysis that a result is given in form of the best estimate of the true value. Only in simple cases is it possible to use the data value itself as result and thus as best estimate." (Manfred Drosg, "Dealing with Uncertainties: A Guide to Error Analysis", 2007)

"Put simply, statistics is a range of procedures for gathering, organizing, analyzing and presenting quantitative data. […] Essentially […], statistics is a scientific approach to analyzing numerical data in order to enable us to maximize our interpretation, understanding and use. This means that statistics helps us turn data into information; that is, data that have been interpreted, understood and are useful to the recipient. Put formally, for your project, statistics is the systematic collection and analysis of numerical data, in order to investigate or discover relationships among phenomena so as to explain, predict and control their occurrence." (Reva B Brown & Mark Saunders, "Dealing with Statistics: What You Need to Know", 2008)

"Data analysis is careful thinking about evidence." (Michael Milton, "Head First Data Analysis", 2009)

"Doing data analysis without explicitly defining your problem or goal is like heading out on a road trip without having decided on a destination." (Michael Milton, "Head First Data Analysis", 2009)

"The discrepancy between our mental models and the real world may be a major problem of our times; especially in view of the difficulty of collecting, analyzing, and making sense of the unbelievable amount of data to which we have access today." (Ugo Bardi, "The Limits to Growth Revisited", 2011)

"Data analysis is not generally thought of as being simple or easy, but it can be. The first step is to understand that the purpose of data analysis is to separate any signals that may be contained within the data from the noise in the data. Once you have filtered out the noise, anything left over will be your potential signals. The rest is just details." (Donald J Wheeler," Myths About Data Analysis", International Lean & Six Sigma Conference, 2012)

"The four questions of data analysis are the questions of description, probability, inference, and homogeneity. Any data analyst needs to know how to organize and use these four questions in order to obtain meaningful and correct results. [...] 
THE DESCRIPTION QUESTION: Given a collection of numbers, are there arithmetic values that will summarize the information contained in those numbers in some meaningful way?
THE PROBABILITY QUESTION: Given a known universe, what can we say about samples drawn from this universe? [...] 
THE INFERENCE QUESTION: Given an unknown universe, and given a sample that is known to have been drawn from that unknown universe, and given that we know everything about the sample, what can we say about the unknown universe? [...] 
THE HOMOGENEITY QUESTION: Given a collection of observations, is it reasonable to assume that they came from one universe, or do they show evidence of having come from multiple universes?" (Donald J Wheeler," Myths About Data Analysis", International Lean & Six Sigma Conference, 2012)

"Each systems archetype embodies a particular theory about dynamic behavior that can serve as a starting point for selecting and formulating raw data into a coherent set of interrelationships. Once those relationships are made explicit and precise, the 'theory' of the archetype can then further guide us in our data-gathering process to test the causal relationships through direct observation, data analysis, or group deliberation." (Daniel H Kim, "Systems Archetypes as Dynamic Theories", The Systems Thinker Vol. 24 (1), 2013)

"A complete data analysis will involve the following steps: (i) Finding a good model to fit the signal based on the data. (ii) Finding a good model to fit the noise, based on the residuals from the model. (iii) Adjusting variances, test statistics, confidence intervals, and predictions, based on the model for the noise.(DeWayne R Derryberry, "Basic data analysis for time series with R", 2014)

"The random element in most data analysis is assumed to be white noise - normal errors independent of each other. In a time series, the errors are often linked so that independence cannot be assumed (the last examples). Modeling the nature of this dependence is the key to time series.(DeWayne R Derryberry, "Basic data analysis for time series with R", 2014)

"Statistics is an integral part of the quantitative approach to knowledge. The field of statistics is concerned with the scientific study of collecting, organizing, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data." (Kandethody M Ramachandran & Chris P Tsokos, "Mathematical Statistics with Applications in R" 2nd Ed., 2015)

"The dialectical interplay of experiment and theory is a key driving force of modern science. Experimental data do only have meaning in the light of a particular model or at least a theoretical background. Reversely theoretical considerations may be logically consistent as well as intellectually elegant: Without experimental evidence they are a mere exercise of thought no matter how difficult they are. Data analysis is a connector between experiment and theory: Its techniques advise possibilities of model extraction as well as model testing with experimental data." (Achim Zielesny, "From Curve Fitting to Machine Learning" 2nd Ed., 2016)

"Data analysis and data mining are concerned with unsupervised pattern finding and structure determination in data sets. The data sets themselves are explicitly linked as a form of representation to an observational or otherwise empirical domain of interest. 'Structure' has long been understood as symmetry which can take many forms with respect to any transformation, including point, translational, rotational, and many others. Symmetries directly point to invariants, which pinpoint intrinsic properties of the data and of the background empirical domain of interest. As our data models change, so too do our perspectives on analysing data." (Fionn Murtagh, "Data Science Foundations: Geometry and Topology of Complex Hierarchic Systems and Big Data Analytics", 2018)

"[…] the data itself can lead to new questions too. In exploratory data analysis (EDA), for example, the data analyst discovers new questions based on the data. The process of looking at the data to address some of these questions generates incidental visualizations - odd patterns, outliers, or surprising correlations that are worth looking into further." (Danyel Fisher & Miriah Meyer, "Making Data Visual", 2018)

"Analysis is a two-step process that has an exploratory and an explanatory phase. In order to create a powerful data story, you must effectively transition from data discovery (when you’re finding insights) to data communication (when you’re explaining them to an audience). If you don’t properly traverse these two phases, you may end up with something that resembles a data story but doesn’t have the same effect. Yes, it may have numbers, charts, and annotations, but because it’s poorly formed, it won’t achieve the same results." (Brent Dykes, "Effective Data Storytelling: How to Drive Change with Data, Narrative and Visuals", 2019)

"While visuals are an essential part of data storytelling, data visualizations can serve a variety of purposes from analysis to communication to even art. Most data charts are designed to disseminate information in a visual manner. Only a subset of data compositions is focused on presenting specific insights as opposed to just general information. When most data compositions combine both visualizations and text, it can be difficult to discern whether a particular scenario falls into the realm of data storytelling or not." (Brent Dykes, "Effective Data Storytelling: How to Drive Change with Data, Narrative and Visuals", 2019)

"If the data that go into the analysis are flawed, the specific technical details of the analysis don’t matter. One can obtain stupid results from bad data without any statistical trickery. And this is often how bullshit arguments are created, deliberately or otherwise. To catch this sort of bullshit, you don’t have to unpack the black box. All you have to do is think carefully about the data that went into the black box and the results that came out. Are the data unbiased, reasonable, and relevant to the problem at hand? Do the results pass basic plausibility checks? Do they support whatever conclusions are drawn?" (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

"We all know that the numerical values on each side of an equation have to be the same. The key to dimensional analysis is that the units have to be the same as well. This provides a convenient way to keep careful track of units when making calculations in engineering and other quantitative disciplines, to make sure one is computing what one thinks one is computing. When an equation exists only for the sake of mathiness, dimensional analysis often makes no sense." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

"Overall [...] everyone also has a need to analyze data. The ability to analyze data is vital in its understanding of product launch success. Everyone needs the ability to find trends and patterns in the data and information. Everyone has a need to ‘discover or reveal (something) through detailed examination’, as our definition says. Not everyone needs to be a data scientist, but everyone needs to drive questions and analysis. Everyone needs to dig into the information to be successful with diagnostic analytics. This is one of the biggest keys of data literacy: analyzing data." (Jordan Morrow, "Be Data Literate: The data literacy skills everyone needs to succeed", 2021)

[Murphy’s Laws of Analysis:] "(1) In any collection of data, the figures that are obviously correct contain errors. (2) It is customary for a decimal to be misplaced. (3) An error that can creep into a calculation, will. Also, it will always be in the direction that will cause the most damage to the calculation." (G C Deakly)

"We must include in any language with which we hope to describe complex data-processing situations the capability for describing data. We must also include a mechanism for determining the priorities to be applied to the data. These priorities are not fixed and are indicated in many cases by the data." (Grace Hopper) 

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