17 November 2015

🪙Business Intelligence: Predictive Analytics (Just the Quotes)

"Put simply, statistics is a range of procedures for gathering, organizing, analyzing and presenting quantitative data. […] Essentially […], statistics is a scientific approach to analyzing numerical data in order to enable us to maximize our interpretation, understanding and use. This means that statistics helps us turn data into information; that is, data that have been interpreted, understood and are useful to the recipient. Put formally, for your project, statistics is the systematic collection and analysis of numerical data, in order to investigate or discover relationships among phenomena so as to explain, predict and control their occurrence." (Reva B Brown & Mark Saunders, "Dealing with Statistics: What You Need to Know", 2008)

"When the purpose of forecasting is to generate accurate forecasts, it is useful to define performance metrics that measure predictive accuracy. Such metrics can tell us how well a particular method performs in general, as well as compared to benchmarks or forecasts from other methods." (Galit Shmueli, "Practical Time Series Forecasting: A Hands-On Guide", 2011)

"Data are essential, but performance improvements and competitive advantage arise from analytics models that allow managers to predict and optimize outcomes. More important, the most effective approach to building a model rarely starts with the data; instead it originates with identifying the business opportunity and determining how the model can improve performance." (Dominic Barton & David Court, "Making Advanced Analytics Work for You", 2012) 

"Most statistical models assume error free measurement, at least of independent (predictor) variables. However, as we all know, measurements are seldom if ever perfect. Particularly when dealing with noisy data such as questionnaire responses or processes which are difficult to measure precisely, we need to pay close attention to the effects of measurement errors. Two characteristics of measurement which are particularly important in psychological measurement are reliability and validity." (Clay Helberg, "Pitfalls of Data Analysis (or How to Avoid Lies and Damned Lies)", 1995)

"Data are essential, but performance improvements and competitive advantage arise from analytics models that allow managers to predict and optimize outcomes. More important, the most effective approach to building a model rarely starts with the data; instead it originates with identifying the business opportunity and determining how the model can improve performance." (Dominic Barton & David Court, "Making Advanced Analytics Work for You", 2012)

"Any presentation of data, whether a simple calculated metric or a complex predictive model, is going to have a set of assumptions and choices that the producer has made to get to the output. The more that these can be made explicit, the more the audience of the data will be open to accepting the message offered by the presenter." (Zach Gemignani et al, "Data Fluency", 2014)

"It is important to remember that predictive data analytics models built using machine learning techniques are tools that we can use to help make better decisions within an organization and are not an end in themselves. It is paramount that, when tasked with creating a predictive model, we fully understand the business problem that this model is being constructed to address and ensure that it does address it." (John D Kelleher et al, "Fundamentals of Machine Learning for Predictive Data Analytics: Algorithms, worked examples, and case studies", 2015)

"Unfortunately, some organizations are replicating the bad data warehouse practice by creating special-purpose data lakes - data lakes to address a specific business need. Resist that urge! Instead, source the data that is needed for that specific business need into an 'analytic sandbox' where the data scientists and the business users can collaborate to find those data variables and analytic models that are better predictors of the business performance. Within the 'analytic sandbox', the organization can bring together (ingest and integrate) the data that it wants to test, build the analytic models, test the model's goodness of fit, acquire new data, refine the analytic models, and retest the goodness of fit." (Billl Schmarzo, "Driving Business Strategies with Data Science: Big Data MBA" 1st Ed., 2015)

"One important thing to bear in mind about the outputs of data science and analytics is that in the vast majority of cases they do not uncover hidden patterns or relationships as if by magic, and in the case of predictive analytics they do not tell us exactly what will happen in the future. Instead, they enable us to forecast what may come. In other words, once we have carried out some modelling there is still a lot of work to do to make sense out of the results obtained, taking into account the constraints and assumptions in the model, as well as considering what an acceptable level of reliability is in each scenario." (Jesús Rogel-Salazar, "Data Science and Analytics with Python", 2017)

"The first myth is that prediction is always based on time-series extrapolation into the future (also known as forecasting). This is not the case: predictive analytics can be applied to generate any type of unknown data, including past and present. In addition, prediction can be applied to non-temporal (time-based) use cases such as disease progression modeling, human relationship modeling, and sentiment analysis for medication adherence, etc. The second myth is that predictive analytics is a guarantor of what will happen in the future. This also is not the case: predictive analytics, due to the nature of the insights they create, are probabilistic and not deterministic. As a result, predictive analytics will not be able to ensure certainty of outcomes." (Prashant Natarajan et al, "Demystifying Big Data and Machine Learning for Healthcare", 2017)

"Data scientists have extensive backgrounds in computer science, coding, machine learning, and statistics. Such an extensive background takes a long time to develop and is usually highly compensated. This has posed a tremendous barrier to many organizations. But this isn’t the only problem with relying solely on data experts. As organizations become more advanced, they are becoming more interested in using data to predict future outcomes. Merely relying on data from the past won’t suffice. Businesses must be forward thinking in how they collect their data to best serve predictive analytics. This means the employees who collect the data (e.g., those rating performance or creating and administering an engagement survey) need to understand how those data will later be analyzed." (Shonna D Watters et al, "The Practical Guide for HR Analytics: Using data to inform, transform, and empower HR decisions", 2019)

"Advanced analytics pivots around machine learning methods. Machine learning employs statistical learning methods to perform analysis on data. These statistical methods utilize algorithms that predict what may happen based on historical data or extract complex mathematical relationships from data to generate insights." (Pradeep Menon, "Data Lakehouse in Action", 2022)

"Many argue that model drift is best monitored by monitoring the data drift in incoming data and the drift in the generated features. As and when the ground truth is available, it is joined by some primary key criteria with the inference data in a Delta table. Again, the update and merge operation support in Delta makes this a breeze. Now the actual and predicted values of the inference data are computed to see how well the model is doing in terms of the quality of insight generation. The feature engineering pipeline is completely in-house and is easier to monitor for drift. The model interpretability may indicate that some columns contributing to the predictive power are incorrect, and it may be necessary to add or remove features. In such cases, a threshold of tolerance is violated, which signals a need for model retraining." (Anindita Mahapatra, "Simplifying Data Engineering and Analytics with Delta", 2022)

"A Data Lakehouse provides a unified platform for various data workloads, such as descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics. It can handle structured and unstructured data and enforce schema at both read and write times, enabling traditional business intelligence tasks and advanced analytics on the same platform." (Pradeep Menon, "Data Mesh Principles, patterns, architecture, and strategies for data-driven decision making", 2024)

"Predictive analytics, involves the use of data, statistical algorithms, and machine learning techniques to identify the likelihood of future outcomes based on historical data. Neural networks, with their remarkable ability to learn and model complex patterns, have become the backbone of modern forecasting methods. Their application ranges from predicting consumer behavior in retail to forecasting the stock market trends, from anticipating weather patterns to foreseeing potential healthcare outbreaks." (Hayden Van Der Post, "Neural Network: Mastering the Art of Algorithmic Trading", 2024)

"Data transformation sits at the heart of every successful data platform, serving as the critical bridge between data ingestion and data consumption. While basic transformations might involve simple cleaning and formatting, advanced transformation techniques encompass complex operations such as data enrichment, sophisticated deduplication, machine learning-based predictions, and the creation of derived metrics that weren’t present in the original data sources. These processes are essential for organizations looking to extract maximum value from their data investments." (Christopher Maneu et al, "The Definitive Guide to Microsoft Fabric From discovery to building a unified, secure, and scalable data platform", 2025)


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IT Professional with more than 25 years experience in IT in the area of full life-cycle of Web/Desktop/Database Applications Development, Software Engineering, Consultancy, Data Management, Data Quality, Data Migrations, Reporting, ERP implementations & support, Team/Project/IT Management, etc.